Decision making speed > accuracy

Most decisions – say 90% – we make in our lives are reversible.

As a general principle for these reversible decisions, I’ve found it helpful to prioritize speed of decision making over accuracy.

This sounds crazy at first – why wouldn’t we try to get decisions right?

It turns out there’s a huge cost in waiting for all the information to appear. So, if we prioritize making the decision quickly instead, we can also go back and change the decision if we see data that tells us otherwise.

Over the long run, two things happen. First, quick experimentation beats deliberation.

And, second, with more repetition, we begin to develop a better gut and nose for the right direction. At that point, decision making speed morphs into decision making velocity (velocity = speed + direction – in this case, a direction that is in the ball park).

Decision making velocity, in turn,  leads us to good judgement.

Novak Djokovic and marginal improvements

Between the years 2004 and 2011, Novak Djokovic went from being ranked outside the top 100 players in the world to #1. During this period, the % of matches he won climbed from 49% to an impressive 90%.

But, here’s where things get interesting – if we have to understand the root cause of his improvement, we need to get down to the level of his in-match decision making. And, the best way to see that manifest itself is in his ability to win individual points – a culmination of 3-4 key micro decisions.

And, during this period from being ranked 100+ to 3 to 1, his % of points won moved “just” from 49% to 52% to 55%.

Small, consistent, marginal wins -> Massive impact.

(H/T Stephen Weiss who shared the first 4 minutes of this TEDx talk by Stephen Duneier in response to yesterday’s post)

The next game is a big one

Of course, so is the one after that. And the one after that too.

Every once in a while, we have the thrilling equivalent of a cup final in our professional lives – a big review, an important presentation, and so on.

But, for most of the rest of the time, we’re playing in a league where we score points by showing up every day with hunger, thoughtfulness and a desire to learn and grow. Just as competitive leagues don’t give us extra points for playing a tough team, life appreciates consistent effort – regardless of the events planned for the day.

The difference between the good teams and the great teams is that the good teams put in their best for a few big games in the season while the great teams show up assuming every game is a big game.

And so it is.

A great question for the interviewer

This maybe controversial – consider replacing that generic question to your interviewer at the end of the problem solving/case-type interview and ask for feedback on how you did.

There are 3 potential benefits – i) you understand what the interviewer was looking for, ii) you get to discuss and learn from the interviewer, and iii) you might just get a sense of where you stand.

Most interviews end without feedback. This approach, on the other hand, ensures you can close the loop and actually improve your ability to work through problem solving questions for the next interview and, maybe, even in your job.

As long as it comes from a place of curiosity, you might just be surprised as to how often you’ll get candid, constructive feedback. When that happens, it is a real gift.

(If it helps, I think I did this for 15 odd interviews over a 3 year period and was only politely declined once.)

Indian roads and fair performance evaluation

We were attempting to articulate the principle behind driving on Indian roads to someone visiting for the first time recently. The best articulation we stumbled upon was – “Every person for themselves.”

On roads all over the world, people drive to get to where they want to go. In many of these places, you have constraints or rules of the road. On Indian roads, you only have to worry about very “hard” constraints (typically driven by traffic lights) – e.g. there’s a wave of traffic in front you and there’s no way you can squeeze through. You don’t worry about lanes, occasionally pay attention to pedestrians, and definitely don’t care about courtesy.

Why is that? Is there something wrong with the people? Why, then, do the same people follow the rules when they’re in a different place?

If you are on a road in Europe, you follow good protocol for two reasons. First, it is because you know that the overall system is more efficient when there is order. If everyone follows the rules, everyone will get to where they want to faster.

Second and probably more important, it is what everyone does and there are real consequences to not doing so. In Switzerland, for example, you get docked a percentage of your pay. The system of rewards and punishments set the guardrails for a culture that shapes behavior. 

My sense is that there is a universal distrust – for the right reasons – in the “system” (or lack thereof) in India that, in turn, results in a culture that incentivizes selfish behavior.

While this could be a rant about Indian roads, it isn’t. Instead, we can draw some interesting parallels with politics in organizations. When organizations have employees who believe in the internal systems to set the guardrails for acceptable behavior while also creating a culture that reinforces the good, you create the sort of environment where employees optimize for the greater good.

Why wouldn’t they? If they did, the company would do better. And, since the system works, they’ll get rewarded for it.

But, in organizations with poorly managed HR functions or poorly administered compensation schemes, every employee is in it to maximize rewards for themselves. Poorly designed compensation systems inevitably result in poor corporate cultures.

When in doubt, look beyond the people problems to the system problems that cause them.

Mat leave reflection

I recently asked a friend for her top reflections following her maternity leave after the birth of her second child.

She responded with – “Be nice to your parents. You’ll need their help when you have kids.” 

Although she said it half in jest, I couldn’t agree more. We’ve been very fortunate recipients of support from our parents and are grateful for the relationship we share.

I hope you find the time to call or visit your parents this weekend..

Reflection on Principles

My one line reflection from Ray Dalio’s “Principles” was – “Ray Dalio’s success built on investing since he was 12, building the disciple to reflect on every decision, and approaching every decision with a fear of being wrong (or avoiding over confidence).”

While I love how he built a life around obsessive reflection and truth seeking, I thought his emphasis on making the effort to find something that is fun for you was powerful. He repeatedly talks about how he plans to play the markets till he dies. It is an idea I’ve observed from time to time – when you spend your time doing something that you enjoy, you naturally invest in getting better.

No prodding required.

Directed passion is powerful.*

* I believe in the middle path between “love what you do” and “do what you love.”

Creation, consumption, and critique

It takes a lot of time to build a product.

It generally takes a user few secondS to experience it.

And, it takes a second or two to critique it with a one star review.

The lessons, then –

1. Fall in love with the process of creation. In the long run, that’s where we spend most of our time.

2. When you experience products (or foods), try to put yourself in the shoes of the creator.

3. Consider if adding that critique or one star review will accomplish anything constructive.

(Of course, this analogy works just as well as we think about consuming/cooking our next meal as well.)

9 surprises from 2018

Bill and Melinda Gates shared their 2018 annual letter yesterday. I loved the format – 9 surprises and their thoughts on the action they need to take. My 3 favorite bits of insight were –

(1) The 5 areas we need to solve for zero emissions – electricity generation, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, and buildings. I’ve been searching for a pie chart like this for a while.

2) The modern flush toilet was patented in 1775 (!). Bill Gates has been writing about innovations in this space and I love the idea of having a toilet that requires no zero infrastructure and that converts feces and urine into useful byproducts.

Even more fascinating was the impact this might have on the lives of women. Rather than risk defecating in a dangerous urinal, women in some nations have developed kidney trouble because of holding on to their urine all night.

3) And, I loved their note optimism

We get asked a lot these days whether we’re still optimistic about the future. We say: Absolutely. One reason is that we believe in the power of innovation. But an even bigger reason is that we’ve seen firsthand that for every challenge we’ve written about in this letter, there are people devoting their ideas, their resources, and even their lives to solving them.

When we’re feeling overwhelmed by negative headlines, we remind ourselves that none of us has the right to sit back and expect that the world is going to keep getting better. We have a responsibility to do everything we can to push it in that direction.

In that way, we’ve found that optimism can be a powerful call to action. And it has a multiplier effect: The more optimists there are working for a better future, the more reasons there are to be optimistic.

PS: As I mentioned in my post yesterday, I’m traveling in India over the next few weeks. Unlike in the past, I’m trying to keep normal email schedule – however, that occasionally means two posts arriving on the same day. Apologies!