Relevant costs and their implications on decision making

Fred Wilson, partner at Union Square Ventures and investor in most networks we know and love (Twitter, Tumblr, Etsy, Kickstarter), has a great post on sunk costs this week. It is a must read. My favorite part is –

‘This is a hard thing to do. It is human nature to want to recover the sunk costs. We face this all the time in our business. When we have invested $500,000 or $5mm into a company, it is really easy to get into the mindset that we need to stick with the investment so we can get our money back. If we stop funding, then we write off the investment almost all of the time. If we keep putting money in, there is a chance the investment will work out and we’ll get our money back or even a return on it.

Even though I was taught about sunk costs in business school twenty-five years ago, I have had to learn this lesson the hard way. Most of the time that we make a follow-on investment defensively, to protect the capital we have already invested, that follow-on investment is marginal or outright bad. I have seen this again and again. And so we try really hard to look at every investment based on the return on the new money and not include the capital we have already invested in the decision.’

This seemingly simple insight is what relevant costs in Microeconomics is all about. When making a decision on new investment, don’t consider past investment. It isn’t relevant. What is relevant is the return you are going to get on your current investment. What about the past investment then? Well, you should have thought that through carefully when you were making that decision. Nothing can be done about it now. As humans, we hate the idea of loss. And, the relevant costs concept attempts to guard us against exactly that.

We don’t have to be venture capitalists to have experienced relevant costs. We have seen relevant costs play in bad relationships that we held onto because of an abundance of memories, we’ve seen ourselves follow on on bad bets in poker, and we’ve probably made many a bad decision in attempting to stick with an existing investment hoping it’ll sort itself out – despite the signs telling us otherwise.

Relevant costs essentially give us a great guideline for decision making – make decisions looking forward based on today’s data. Yesterday’s investments don’t matter.

We all know that we can’t drive using the rear view mirror. Yet, as Fred points, out, we tend to do it more often than not. Microeconomics provides us with tools to think about decisions and guard against being predictably irrational.

As with all good things, it is up to us to put them to good use.

Paul Bennett on Design – MBA Learnings

Paul Bennett, Chief Creative Officer at IDEO, the famous design firm, was at school yesterday. He delivered an engaging 50 minute talk on his perspectives on love, beauty, religion, and death. I am not going to attempt a perfect summary of the talk. But, I thought I’d attempt what I took away..

– We are all designers. Businessmen design businesses, teachers design classes, etc. This was the all important base line we started with. Now that we understand we are designers, let us learn to think like one and understand the sorts of barriers design is breaking through in today’s world.

– Design transcends agenda. This was a profound line from a conversation with a princess from the royal family in the UAE. Paul had conducted a brainstorming session in Dubai where he’d asked designers for their dreams for Dubai. The women designers had written some really powerful thoughts along the lines of “we want to matter.” Paul had shared these in his TEDx talk the next day as a way of thinking about designing Dubai in the future. As a designer, sharing these wasn’t about judgment. It was about transcending the agenda and meeting purpose.

– Remember to answer the question. He spoke of the moment when he had been diagnosed with diabetes. He was listening to the doctor throw all sorts of medical terms when he had just one question in mind – “will I be able to eat during thanksgiving?” Sometimes, all we’re looking for is answers to the simple questions – e.g. “will I be okay?,” “do I have a real shot at this opportunity?,” or “will you give me a hug?” Let’s design for those.

Death and religion. Paul spoke about how IDEO is designing for taboo topics like death and religion. These topics are entering the mainstream and they make for great design opportunities. And, while topics like “designing for death” remains somewhat morbid, the fact is that most human beings share common misconceptions and irrational fears around death. Can we make the experience better? (We don’t know yet but we’re certainly going to try!)

Conversation is design. This was the most powerful insight I walked away with. In the vein of us being designers, I think we can extend the “we are all designers” insight into the idea that we all design lives, moments and experiences. And, maybe, we could make more of an effort to design conversations that matter? It isn’t easy to have these conversations around topics like religion, fear, death, and all the other difficult issues that we face in society. But, if we don’t, who will? And, how will we inform our responses to these topics if we aren’t exposed to viewpoints different from ours?

I loved Paul’s talk. He was warm, vulnerable and humorous. It definitely made me think.

And, I think I’ve walked away with ideas for a couple of my projects as well as for my lives. I can think of 2 that I’m going to work hard to implement –

1. Consciously design experiences when designing products, services and events. Apple just sold its one billionth iOS device in what was a quarter described as “monstrous.” They get this idea. Buying an iPhone is designed as an experience. Unwrapping it is part of the experience and using it is definitely another. In the final analysis, it is because we don’t remember what we did.. we do remember how we felt.

2. Have more tough conversations. The inner geek in me loves this idea. In some ways, the talk reminded me of why I am in school – to get exposed, to think, to reflect. There are so many great conversations to be had. And, it is up to me to make them happen.

Selection bias and winners – The 200 words project

Here’s this week’s 200 word idea thanks to TimHarford.com, Lifehacker.com and Professors David Dranove and Brett Saraniti at Kellogg.

In 1943, the American statistician Abraham Wald was asked to advise the US air force on how to reinforce their planes. Only a limited weight of armor plating was feasible, and the proposal on the table was to reinforce the wings, the center of the fuselage, and the tail. Why? Because bombers were returning from missions riddled with bullet holes in those areas.

Wald explained that this would be a mistake. What the air force had discovered was that when planes were hit in the wings, tail or central fuselage, they made it home. Where, asked Wald, were the planes that had been hit in other areas?They never returned. Wald suggested reinforcing the planes wherever the surviving planes had been unscathed instead.

As blogger Tim Harford points out, this makes for a classic example of selection bias and also a great life lesson. It is natural to look at successes. But, if we don’t examine our failures, we may end up putting our time, money, attention or even armor plating in entirely the wrong place.

Abraham Wald planesSource and thanks to: Digitalroam.typedpad.com

‘The data that isn’t present may tell as important a story as the data that is.’

Do defaults save lives? – MBA Learnings

A powerful study by Goldstein and Johnson in 2003 explored the relevance of defaults in organ donation. We discussed their findings and the implications in our class on “Values based Leadership.” Most countries have big problems with organ donations due to the large gaps between the number of donors and the number who need organs. However, this graph illustrating the difference in organ donation rates in the European Union is telling.

Organ donor consent rates

As you can see, countries like Denmark, the UK, the Netherlands and Germany average around 10% while the rest are close to a 100%. The difference? Defaults.

In the “default” countries, citizens see a checked box in the form they submit to sign their driving licenses (for example) that says they will donate their organs when they die. It is up to them to un-check the box. And, clearly, very few do. This idea has been documented in researcher Richard Thaler’s book, “Nudges,” which discusses how small nudges by policy makers can make a big difference in society. This is an example of that. And, Goldstein and Johnson’s research shows that defaults are a powerful way to influence people.

I think this research also speaks to the power of strong cultures. Strong cultures are built around defaults and the idea of “this is what people like me do.” Defaults may just be the closest shortcut to cultural change. Governments such as the UK have understood that and have been setting up “Nudge committees” to study areas where important policy can be nudged. The challenge, of course, is that people hate the government playing big brother. However, nudges and the idea of defaults are here to stay and it’ll be interesting to see how policy makers use these tools to influence us.

One such researcher who is working hard to change things is Dan Ariely. And, I am reminded of this comment from him when I interviewed him 2 years back.

“I look at the whole world, and then I say, “Is this a place that is the outcome of 7 billion rational people? If everybody was perfectly rational this would have been the best world imaginable. The conclusion very easily is no. In a couple of hours I’m leaving for Africa where there’s a tremendous amount of illness and poverty. There is also a tremendous amount of hope. If this world is not the outcome of 7 billion rational people, maybe we can do better.

It’s true that when you look at individuals, you can say for each individual, “I wish you were more rational in some ways.” But for the planet as a whole you say “My goodness the gap between where we are and where we could be is tremendous.” There are a lot of things to improve. I think we can do much more. That’s my hope. My hope is that as we’re learning more we will improve things. Both in terms of my personal life and in terms of my outlook on the world in general, it’s a good thing.”

The Sandwich Strategy – MBA Learnings

Federal Express or FedEx was created to compete an overnight delivery with the United States Postal Service or USPS. Responding to FedEx’s entry and early success, USPS created a product called Express Mail priced at $8.95 as compared to FedEx’s $12.

FedEx, had it been like most companies, would have reduced price and gone to war with the USPS. But, price is not just a number. It is a way of signaling value and FedEx understood that. So, they responded by redefining their market.

FedEx’s existing Overnight Delivery” did not specify what time the delivery would arrive. So, FedEx introduced precision not only in terms of the delivery day, but also in terms of the delivery time. They then included two deliveries – one in the morning and the other in the afternoon. They then labeled the service as “Priority” and “Standard”. For firms dealing with customers, “Priority” sent a powerful message about how they valued their customer’s business. Firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase were happy to pay for this service distinction. Besides, if a mail marked “priority” showed up tomorrow morning with a dozen other envelopes, what do you think a person picked up to read?

FedEx sandwich

And, the kicker – FedEx increased the price of its Priority service to $13. It kept the lower end Standard service at $9 effectively “sandwich”-ing USPS between its premium and value offerings. In one move, it changed the nature of the competition from one on price to one on brand and value. It also backed the decision with technology investment in tracking parcels that provided additional benefit for customers.

The lesson? When faced with adversity, don’t just react with what comes intuitively. Take some time off and think about how you could respond by doing what’s counter intuitive. And, if you’re feeling stuck or hopeless, remember the time FedEx raised its prices when being attacked by a huge competitor.

Why MBA – MBA Learnings

Since it is the new year, I thought I’d tackle the big question – “Why bother with an MBA?” At any given time, there is a fair amount of opinion in the press on the MBA. Some say it is useless, others warn us about possible pitfalls and a few dare to be bullish.

My view is that the truth, like most things, in life is somewhere in between. So, here are a collection of my thoughts based on what I’ve seen and learnt –

1. The biggest trouble with an MBA is that there is no single consistent academic experience. Most Masters in Computer Engineering programs teach the same core concepts. Yes, you sort of do that with an MBA. But, then again, not really. You have a lot of freedom and flexibility to learn things you care about. Then, the next problem is that practically every university has an MBA program. That’s where the rankings come in.

2. The rankings have all sorts of faults. Most of them don’t measure what a school should actually be measured on simply because the data isn’t easily available (or the publications just couldn’t bother). But, if you aggregate them together, there are consistent patterns in the schools that show up in the top ten, the top twenty and so on. This distinction matters for calculations on return-on-investment.

3. I know this seems like a really mercenary way to approach this. But, I’d like to get it out of the way because return-on-investment matters (ROI) a lot. Students spend roughly $200,000 in the two years and a lot more in the opportunity costs of missing out on two years worth of earnings. They’re also doing so in a high-growth phase of their careers. For a large proportion, this is an opportunity to level up and move to a career that’ll give them more opportunities and/or more income. ROI matters. I’m not clear what the ROI numbers are – but what I am clear about is that the degree is, unfortunately, not equal. Just as a Masters in Engineering at an MIT will always be valued much higher than most other places, similarly, being lucky and skilled enough to be able to get into a top school changes a lot.

4. Once we’ve got the financials out of the question, what is the experience really worth? We interviewed venture capitalist Brad Feld over Skype yesterday and one of my classmates asked him a similar question. He reflected on his own experience at MIT-Sloan and said – “An MBA is a nice two year vacation from reality. And, in many cases, such a vacation is very useful.” And, he went on to talk about the ability we have to think about our long term careers, switch career tracks, and make decisions that can alter the course of the life. And, it is true. It is not always we’re presented with opportunities to do that with so many options.

5. The other idea I will pick is a recent post from Seth’s blog. This post was shared by our Professor in our introductory Microeconomics class just two days ago.


Doing calculus with Roman numerals

Quick, what’s XIV squared?

You can’t do advanced math without the zero. And you can’t write precise prose without a well-developed vocabulary.

The magic of the alphabet is that twenty-six letters are all you need to spell every word. The beauty of Lego blocks is that you don’t need very many to build something extraordinary.

Imagine how hard it would be to get anything done, though, if you only knew 17 letters.

In most fields your work is hindered if you only have a few of the most basic tools. Understanding more of the building blocks of finance, or marketing or technology are essential if you want to get something important done.

Here’s my advice: Every time you hear an expert use a word or concept you don’t understand, stop her and ask to be taught. Every time. After just a few interactions, you’ll have a huge advantage over those who didn’t ask.


The way I see it – the bold-ed bit is what an MBA gives you. It doesn’t do enough in terms of explaining the building blocks of technology as yet. But, there’s already a fair bit of choice in many schools and it is on the rise. It always takes education a few years to catch up with change.

6. Does that mean everyone needs an MBA? Absolutely not. There are so many ways to get this sort of knowledge on the internet and in books. So, if you really wanted to get the knowledge, you can (you can just just follow Seth’s excellent advice). My view is the following – if you value learning about business (academics), if you value/need taking some time out to think about what you really want to do (career), and if you value working with, getting to know, and building relationships with peers from many different backgrounds,  many of whom also tend to have similar hopes and dreams as you, then I think you’ll really enjoy the MBA experience.

7. There are many reasons MBA grads get flak from employers – too much entitlement, not enough value added, etc. And, I daresay there are always going to be a few who will give others a bad name. But, on the whole, I do feel there is a lot of value the education brings. In my first quarter alone, I feel like I have gained insights that would have been very helpful in my jobs over the past few years. The nice thing about this learning is that it is all connected and reinforces each other. Accounting inter links with finance which inter links nicely with building companies which requires marketing and so on. I think it’ll help future entrepreneurs and business owners avoid a few fundamental mistakes and it’ll help anyone working in a company make better decisions (if they paid attention in class). And, who knows, maybe avoiding a mistake in giving out equity could save you half a million dollars as your business scales. That’s already the cost of the degree and more..

8. As you can tell, this is clearly a collection of my unstructured thoughts on the subject. I am, of course, biased. I can’t say much about whether this investment will lead to x or y result in 20 years. I honestly don’t care that much. I am here because I really wanted to learn, to think about what I really want to do, and to meet, work with and build relationships with some very interesting people. And, so far, the experience has stretched me, made me think, and given me an incredible amount of learning opportunity. And, the sheer intensity has kept me on my toes. In short, I’m loving it.

9. I do, however, think it helps keep perspective that this is just a wonderful way to spend 2 years of my life. It is learning geek paradise in some respects. It is not practical for many and definitely not a necessity. For this, I will go back to Hunter Walk’s brilliant post on “It’s fine to get an MBA, don’t be an MBA.” If you haven’t read it, please do. Here’s my favorite bit.


Getting an MBA means you’re curious to learn broadly about theories and explore how these techniques can be applied to various businesses. Being an MBA means you think you’re getting taught the one right answer to problems – to a hammer everything is a nail – and that only MBAs know these dark arts.
Getting an MBA means offering your perspectives and experiences to your classmates. Being an MBA means looking at your peers as networking targets.
Getting an MBA means thinking about your degree as just another attribute of who you are – I have brown hair, a wife, work at Google, enjoy citrus fruits and possess a Stanford degree. Being an MBA means you are “Hunter Walk, Stanford MBA,” elevating the matriculation to a level of undeserving primacy.

Getting an MBA means you shoot out of school wanting to prove yourself and see what you can contribute to others. Being an MBA means thinking the world owes you something and that your value 10x’ed just from spending two years on a campus.

At the end of the day, just be who you are, which is a collection of skills, abilities, successes, failures, fears, dreams and hopes. The most important degree you possess is Human University.


This, of course, applies to any accomplishment. Results happen to us due to good processes and a fair dose of luck (e.g. in this case, being born in the right place) – don’t let them define you. It is the same deal with this degree – if you think it’ll add value, it will. If you want to make it meaningful, it will be. Don’t do it for the tag. Do it because you’ll learn and get better. And, if you don’t do it, that’s okay too.

In either case, we’re on this planet for a short period of time, at least in the giant scheme of things. Let’s just focus on making it meaningful, making it count.

90% of all analysis is prep time – MBA Learnings

We spent a lot of time in our statistics class on regressions. A regression is simply the measure of the relation between the mean value of the output or ‘y’ variable and the value of input variables. It is the ability to predict a value for ‘y’ given the values of certain ‘x’.


For any regression, we go through the following steps –

1. Think of a model of y. Let’s say we are attempting to predict the health of a person. We need to first think of all the factors that result in good health.

So, f(good health) = f(good diet) + f(exercise) + f(sleep) + f(collection of other minor variables or noise)

It is important to get the important factors in this model so as to guard against omitted variable bias or OVB.

2. Sort out causality. We then think about whether the relationship is cause-and-effect. This deserves a blog post in itself as this “identification” error is rampant across many studies. Here, we could argue that, largely, good health is caused by behavior. That said, we are probably missing genetic predisposition to good health. That is an example of a variable that should go into the equation because it is a sure shot source of OVB

3. Clean your data. Now it is time to examine the data we have. Look at trends and outliers.

4. Match the data to the theory to see if you have the right variables. This is when we check if we have data for diet, exercise, sleep and genetics as we’re trying to predict the average health of a patient. We also need to check if we have a good proxy of average health – e.g. number of doctor visits per year.

5. Check for “action” in the key variables. Next, we need to make sure that variables like diet, exercise, etc., have enough variation. Without variation, it is impossible to link movement in the variables with movement in the output.

6. Briefly examine a simple model. Run a first regression with a simple model and check for relationships and significance (or level of confidence in our relationships)

7. Settle on an empirical method. Are we assuming a linear relationship? Is there any chance an improvement in health or exercise or sleep could result in a percentage change in health?

8. Check for multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity. These are big words. Multicollinearity is simply checking for whether x variables in the model are correlated. For example, are good diet and exercise correlated? If everyone who has a good diet also exercises a certain amount, perhaps we could just include one of the two. The key here is to understand multicollinearity doesn’t change the outcome. It just messes with the standard errors of prediction. So, definitely important to check but no need to panic.

Heteroskedasticity, on the other hand, is a check for whether we have the right empirical model. I won’t go into depth here but this is a quick check to see if there is a pattern in the residuals or unexplained factors in the regression.

9. Check for robustness. The robustness check is an interesting check – it involves removing variables or groups of variables to see if they make a difference to the output. For example, one check would be to remove sleep from the regression and see if it makes a difference. If it doesn’t, we can safely take it out. The idea here is to use as few variables as necessary to check for whether there is a relationship between the variables and the output.

10. Run the final regression and interpret your results.

(Note: We have intentionally not discussed the R-squared of the regression. The R-squared isn’t a good predictor of regression accuracy especially in models where future trends aren’t likely to mirror historical trends. Low R-squared models in very hard-to-predict situations can still tell us a lot.)


Sorry for the long drawn statistics lesson. Now for what I find most interesting – step 10 or running that final regression is a 10 second task followed by a few minutes interpreting the result. So, 90% or more of the time we’ve spent on the analysis has been preparing the data for regression.

I find that analogous to all of life’s great processes – 90% of most great processes is indeed prep time.

Lessons on branding from Blackbeard the Pirate – MBA Learnings

A brand is simply a network of associations that exist in the minds of customers. Seeing the famous Nike swoosh or the Coca Cola logo triggers associations in our mind.

Brand associations are incredibly powerful because they stick. Malaysian Airlines, for example, is likely to face the consequences of its two tragedies for a very long time. These discussions naturally lead us to discussions around what companies do with these associations – rebranding, repositioning, etc. We’ll leave those topics for a later time and, instead, learn from one of the early exponents of the power of a brand – Blackbeard the Pirate.

Edward Teach or “Blackbeard” is one of the most famous pirates in history. And, after an apprenticeship with some famous pirates of the day, he went on to build an empire of sorts. While he wasn’t the most successful pirate in terms of loot, he definitely succeeded in leaving behind an unparalleled legacy. Here’s how –

1. The name – Blackbeard. It is unknown where he got his famous nickname. Given his mastery of the art of building a brand, we could suspect that it might be the work of the man himself. He was a shrewd and calculating businessman who knew that intimidation mattered greatly as a pirate. The more intimidated his opposing ships were, the less men he would lose since they would give up without a fight.

2. Devil’s image. Blackbeard knew the importance of image in his line of work. Before battle, he would dress all in black, strap several pistols to his chest and put on a large black captain’s hat. Then, he would put slow burning fuses in his hair and beard. The fuses constantly sputtered and gave off smoke, which wreathed him in a perpetual greasy fog. He looked like a devil who had stepped right out of hell and onto a pirate ship and most of his victims simply surrendered their cargo rather than fight him.

3. The first pirate flag. Blackbeard was a true innovator in using insignia. He realized that he would be able to intimidate ships best if they knew he was coming from afar. So, he created his flag – a skeleton spearing a heart while toasting a devil. Pirates later simplified it to the modern version which just depicts a skull and bones.

Blackbeard Flag

Blackbeard understood that he wanted one association when people thought of him – fear. And, he carefully crafted an image around fear that has lasted well past his time. His is a wonderful lesson in building powerful brands while also prompting the question – what is your personal brand? Is it what you would like it to be? What do you do to live up to the brand you aspire to be?

As you can tell with Blackbeard’s tale, these often become self-fulfilling prophecies…

Being suspicious of synergy – MBA Learnings

If you ask for 5 words that form part of traditional business jargon that people hate, the word “synergy” would be right up there. Given its horrible reputation, I was curious to learn more and we discussed the idea at length at our intro strategy class. Here are a few notes –

1. The economic view on synergy is – (how big are the gains) x (how achievable are they) – (costs involved). So, in essence, synergy is just a calculation that multiplies potential gains by the probability of achieving them and subtracts the costs involved.

2. The core idea is that two organizations can combine to create more value as a group than they did individually. Value can be created by either increasing benefit to customers or reducing cost. But, this is where things get a bit nuanced and tricky.

3. Combining two organizations just because they have something in common does absolutely nothing. Good strategy is when the acquisition enables the acquirer to fundamentally change something about how they do what they do. This works well when they have strengths that complement each other. A great example of this is Disney acquiring Pixar. Pixar gave Disney strength in computer generated cartoons and a creative engine that churned out a great movie every 2 years. Disney, on the other hand, could use all of Pixar’s characters in its theme parks and merchandise. In order to avoid too many organizational costs like a clash of cultures, Disney allowed Pixar to operate separately and this acquisition has worked incredibly well for them.

4. It does gets tricky at this point, however, because acquisitions we read about in the press largely talk about potential gains and completely neglect the potential costs. That’s the part of the synergy equation that is normally forgotten or omitted. Researchers have dug into this question over many years – why are acquisitions regularly over valued when they fail so often? There have been many explanations with CEO hubris, poor decision making processes being suggested as possible explanations. But, the fact remains that the costs of a potential acquisition are generally glossed over. And, every time you see an acquisition announced, it is definitely worth looking for whether the acquirer discusses potential costs and challenges. It is quite amazing how regularly this isn’t discussed just given the base rate of failure.

5. Warren Buffet once said – “Synergy is a term widely used in business to explain an acquisition that otherwise makes no sense.” And he’s absolutely right. Synergy has been used to describe business decisions that can best be describes as illogical or fuzzy. And, the take-home message is definitely to continue to be wary when you hear “synergy” because very few actually understand it and use it consistent with its economic definition.

6. Finally, a quick personal application. Every gain we foresee comes at a cost. It is regularly tempting to only think about and discuss the gain. When we do that, it pays to remember that we’re guilty of the exact mistake that costs many companies billions of dollars and many smart executives their job. Make sure we look at both sides of the decisions make. As economists like to say, there is no “free” lunch.

So, yes, we are back a full circle to where we started in terms of our suspicion of the word. But, hopefully, the journey has been useful.

Compound interest and loan sharks – MBA Learnings

We discussed a a segment on CBS regarding Pay Day loans in our accounting class. CBS discussed a Pay Day Loan organizations that charged a bi-weekly interest rate of 15%. They spoke about how outrageous this was as, in their estimation, this meant the lender was charging customers an interest rate of 400%. Now, let’s get into the numbers –

The first step is to spend a minute understanding compound interest. Every great personal finance book starts with requesting the reader to appreciate the beauty and power of compound interest. So, here goes – let’s imagine you have a principle amount of $10 growing at 10% compound interest per year. That means –

At the end of year 1, you have interest of – ($10 x 10%) = $1 
At the end of year 2, you have interest of – $1 + ($10 x 10%) + ($1 x 10%) = $2.1

That little snippet describes what makes compound interest special. In the first year, you earn $1 on the initial $10. But, in the second year, you not only earn the $1 on the $10, you also earn an additional $0.1 on the $1 you earned last year.

At the end of year 3, you have interest of – $2.1 + ($10 x 10%) + ($2.1 x 10%)  = $3.31
At the end of year 4, you have interest of – $3.31 + ($10 x 10%) + ($3.31 x 10%) = $4.64

So, over time, it keeps giving you returns on the interest you already have. Substitute these with much larger numbers and a long time period, and you’ll see how quickly compound interest can increase wealth. The formula for compound interest is P (1 + r)^n where P is the principal, r is the rate of interest and n is the number of time periods.

Let’s go back to the loan sharks now. The rate of interest is 15% and the time period is bi-weekly. There are 52 weeks in a year => 26 “bi-weekly” time periods. CBS’ calculation was 15*26 = 390% or around 400%. This equates to $400 of interest for every $100 in 1 year.

However, they’ve forgotten that the 15% interest is compounded. That means the lenders also charge the 15% on the interest to be repaid over time. This means we have to think of it in terms of compound interest. The real rate, therefore is (1 + r)^n or (1+0.15)^26 (assuming principal to be 1) = 37.86 or 3,786% 

If you’ve ever wondered how loan sharks make money, that is how. For every $100 loaned by a loan shark, they get around $3,786 back in a year for a “15%” bi-weekly interest rate.

One final note – bankers have come under lots of criticism since the financial crisis. While the industry definitely deserves the sort of scrutiny it has been getting, there was commentary about whether life was better without banks. I think this example illustrates how critical banks are towards progress in society. If we’re complaining about a 20% interest on our credit cards, well, maybe we ought to speak to a loan shark..