The expert trap – The 200 words project

What comes to mind when you see this image?

Expert Trap

When most people see this image, they see shock, danger, fear, and a gun pointed at a child.

However, when law enforcement officials were shown this picture in class, they immediately noticed that the official’s finger was not on the trigger. This, in turn, meant that, as per protocol, the child was not in any danger.

The law enforcement officials’ expert knowledge had resulted in a complete disconnect with a normal human reaction.

In a famous study, Stanford graduate student Elizabeth Newton studied a simple game where she asked people to tap a famous song (like “Happy birthday!”) and asked the listener to guess the song. The listener success rate was 2.5% (3 out of 120 songs). And, yet, when she asked the tappers the probability that listeners understood their song, they predicted 50% success on average.

These expert trap/”curse of knowledge” studies illustrate that it is clearly difficult to un-know what we know. They, therefore, point to an interesting idea for us as communicators –   a first step for when we communicate (difficult) ideas is to discipline ourselves to list what we assume/take for granted. We are, then, less likely to fall into the expert trap.

The problem is that once we know something—say, the melody of a song—we find it hard to imagine not knowing it. Our knowledge has “cursed” us. We have difficulty sharing it with others, because we can’t readily re-create their state of mind.


Source and thanks to: Prof Adam Waytz @ Kellogg, HBR

Good enough – The 200 words project

Psychologist Barry Schwartz has a simple piece of advice – “If you ever aren’t sure if you attended the very best party or bought the very best computer, just settle for ‘good enough’.”

People who do this are called “satisficers,” and they’re consistently happier, he’s found, than are “maximizers,” people who feel that they must choose the very best possible option. Maximizers earn more, Schwartz has found, but they’re also less satisfied with their jobs. In fact, they’re more likely to be clinically depressed in general.

The reason this happens, as Schwartz explained in a paper with his Swarthmore colleague Andrew Ward, is that as life circumstances improve, comparisons become commonplace and expectations rise => people may live better, but they won’t feel better about how they live.

So, pick a few things in life that you want to maximize. For everything else, go for good enough. Good enough, as Schwartz says, is almost always good enough.

It can be hard, in our culture, to force yourself to settle for “good enough.” But when it comes to happiness and satisfaction, “good enough” isn’t just good—it’s perfect. – Olga Khazan


Source and thanks to: Olga Khazan in the Atlantic

First Principles Reasoning – The 200 words project

Until Tesla began developing battery packs, battery packs were very expensive at $600 per Kilowatt hour (kWh). In tackling this problem, Elon Musk illustrates the difference between reasoning by analogy vs. reasoning by first principles. The normal way to think about battery packs would be to reason by analogy and say – we buy battery packs at this price because that’s what other people are doing.
With a first principles approach, however, you would ask – what do we know for sure is true? Then, reason up from there. So, Musk and team asked – what are batteries made of? (Cobalt, Nickel, Steel can, etc.) and then asked – what is the value of these constituents in the London metal exchange? It turns out that these constituents cost just $80/kWH.

By using a similar first principles approach, Musk realized that rockets were obscenely expensive because they used parts and technology that had been designed in the 1960s. The constituents of a rocket could be bought in a commodity market today for 2% of the typical price. Cue: SpaceX.

It’s computationally easier to reason by analogy and if you tried to reason from first principles all the time, you wouldn’t be able to get through your day. But, when you’re trying to do something new and complicated, that is the way to do it because analogies are not necessarily perfect and they’re relying on things that have already occurred, so, if you’re trying to make something new then it’s not a great way to go. – Elon Musk


Source and thanks to: Wired.com‘s interview with Elon, HT: Vik’s blog

Slash and Burn your calendar – The 200 words project

We’ve heard numerous complaints about “too many meetings.” Meetings, like a snowball rolling down a mountain, develop ever greater inertia, roll down a path of their own – different from their initial purpose – and ensnare increasing numbers of people as a business grows.

To counter this effect, James Reinhart and the team at ThredUp, a clothing marketplace metamorphosing through hyper-growth, slashed and burned their calendars by deleting every standing and recurring meeting in their agendas. During the next few days, the team questioned what meetings should exist, who ought to attend them, and what their agendas and goals should be. In addition, the team pushed to cut meeting times in half from 50 to 25 minutes.

The impact to the company has been dramatic – fewer, shorter, more productive meetings. And, if a 100 person startup eliminates one 1 hour standing meeting each week from every employee’s calendar, they will have unlocked more than an extra man-year of work to allocate – a new “free” employee.

Slashing and burning calendars periodically challenges a company to allocate its most scarce resource, employees’ time, more effectively. By torching all the scheduling chaff that accumulates over time, companies can start fresh and cultivate a schedule to maximize company and employee performance (and happiness). – Tom Tunguz


Source and thanks to: VC Tom Tunguz’s blog

Meaningful anxiety – The 200 words project

Last week, we found that stress was found to be a predictor of a meaningful life – contrary to our generally negative perception. Researchers at Yale found that this negative perception greatly decreased the quality of our lives.

So, how do we go about switching our perception of stress?
In a study, researchers had people come into a lab about to go into a job interview for the job of their dreams. In the stressful waiting area, researchers told some participants to focus how they were going to impress the interviewers. Another group was asked to think about how the job was connected to their values and to counter anxiety by thinking about why they cared about the job so much.

The “meaning” group were rated higher and were found to be more inspiring and uplifting.

Similar studies have found that the way to switch our perception of stress is to embrace it by digging deep to understand why we care and, then, to recognize that a meaningful life is also a stressful life.

Stress, like adversity, is an opportunity to learn, grow and express our values. And, most importantly, to trust that we can handle the challenge.

When you’re feeling stressed out, just make contact with the paradox of stress. Recognize that stress is not a signal that there’s something wrong with you but a sign that something you care about is at stake, an opportunity to think about what you care about. – Kelly McGonigal (paraphrased)


Source and thanks to: Kelly McGonigal @ 99U

The Stress Paradox (Part 1/2) – The 200 words project

Researchers asked people in 121 countries – “Did you experience a great deal of stress yesterday?” Using the data, they computed a stress index. Then, a group of psychologists used the data to look for correlations with indices of wellbeing like life expectancy, GDP or happiness. The results turned out to be the opposite of what they were expecting – the higher the nation’s stress index, the better the nation’s wellbeing metrics.

More recently, a group of psychologists asked a broad sample of people to reflect on whether or not they felt like their lives had meaning. They then gave people a whole bunch of other surveys to find out predictors of having a meaningful life, or feeling like your life is meaningful. And, it turns out one of the best predictors is stress – any way you measure it.

The researchers found that stress accompanies factors like adversity and worry – both of which predicted meaning. As a result, one of their main conclusions was that people who have a meaningful life worry more and experience much more stress than people with a less meaningful life.

So, how do we switch our negative perceptions of stress? Coming up next week..

We view stress as a signal that either we are inadequate to the challenges of our lives or that our lives have actually become toxic and we might actually turn our attention to trying to avoid the things that give rise to stress. This changes everything – that stress could be a signal that you are engaged in the goals, in the roles, the relationships, you’re pursuing the goals and that you’re facing the challenges that will also give rise to meaning in your life. –  Kelly McGonigal (paraphrased)


Source and thanks to: Kelly McGonigal @ 99U

Invite the awful – The 200 words project

When Louis C.K. first attempted comedy, he was, like most new comedians, terrible. But, thanks to an early burst of effort, he created an hour of reasonable material that helped him become a professional.

But, it was here that he stalled – for fifteen years… until he heard an interview with legendary comedian George Carlin. Carlin said his method was to record one comedy special each year. The day after he was done recording, he’d throw out his old material and start over.

C.K. was incredulous. It had taken him 15 years to build his current hour worth of material. But, he soon realized something – Carlin’s sets got better each year. Writing material from scratch was a brutally effective form of deliberate practice. It is that process that makes you a better comedian and C. K. had been avoiding it.

Feeling desperate, he adopted Carlin’s strategy, threw out his material and started afresh – a process which he latter dubbed – “invite the awful.”

The results were astounding. Within four years of applying “invite the awful,” Comedy Central named him one of the 100 funniest stand-ups of all time.

This is a lesson I need to remind myself of on a regular basis. Getting started on the path to craftsmanship is hard. But it’s equally important (and hard) that you keep inviting the awful by pushing yourself to new places and new levels of ability. If it’s easy to do, you’re not getting better. – Cal Newport


Source and thanks to: Cal Newport’s blog

Collection of mediocre skills – The 200 words project

If you are among the best in the world at something, that’s great. As Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist) describes it, your path forward is clear – just keep better and better at your craft. For everyone else, Scott theorizes that every new skill doubles your chances of success. And, he believes this is the case because of the importance of the combination of complementary skills.

In his case, he possessed average writing ability, average cartooning skills, an average sense of humor and mediocre business experience. In isolation, these weren’t great but they worked great in combination. His experiences working at Pacific Bell exposed him to the Internet. So, he became among the first cartoonists to make Dilbert available online and he even put an email address on Dilbert comics to solicit reader feedback. Over time, feedback from his readers led to him focusing Dilbert on the workplace – all of which played a huge role in its eventual success.

So, if you are Marketing Manager who is skilled at Marketing, that’s a good start. But, if can also count digital marketing and design among your capabilities, that greatly improves your odds at success. Collection of mediocre skills = formidable.

“Can you name one other person who has average skills in writing, humor, art, and business? It’s a rare mixture. Individually, none of my skills are anywhere near world-class. But combined, they create a powerful market force.” | Scott Adams


Source and thanks to: How to Fail at Everything and Still Win Big by Scott Adams

Red flag law – The 200 word project

When locomotives with engines were introduced in the UK, the red flag law was passed in 1865. This required cars to drive at less than 2 miles per hour and to be preceded by pedestrians waving a red flag. This was the case despite the fact that existing human operated vehicles crashed with frightening regularity. So, the new technology needed to jump across higher safety hoops than the existing technology.

The takeaway from this for ex-Google executives, Eric Schmidt and Jonathan Rosenberg, is that there’s a constant tension between regulation and innovation. If we get attached to something that works and refuse to accept anything new that comes with risks of failure, it is only a matter of time before we move backwards.

This has lots of applications in our lives, too. The best projects come with the “this might not work” tag. And, accepting the idea will require us to consistently remind ourselves that what got us here won’t get us there. If we keep raising the bar such that we accept nothing aside from “assured” success, it will only be a matter of time before we stop trying.

At some level, “this might not work” is at the heart of all important projects, of everything new and worth doing.” – Seth Godin


Source and thanks to: How Google Works by Eric Schmidt and Jonathan Rosenberg

What would a new person do? – The 200 words project

In 1985, Intel was debating whether to stay in the memory business or to invest entirely in the microprocessor business. They were losing market share in the memory business very quickly to Japanese companies and Japanese technology was known to be superior.

When Intel’s Japanese executives confirmed that Japanese technology was far superior to their own, their worst fears were confirmed. However, the memory business was still contributing to revenues and there was a big internal debate of whether to keep memory or not.

One day, amidst all the debate, CEO Andy Grove asked his team – “If a new CEO walked in today, what would he do?” The answer was obvious to all – “Kill memory.” So, they decided to go to their customers with the announcements. The typical reaction? “Well it sure took you guys long.”

And thus, a huge debate around an important decision (that ended up being absolutely right) was answered by just looking for another perspective and asking – “What would a new person who walked into this situation do?”

Next time you’re fearful about a decision, get a dose of perspective. Ask, “What would my successor do?” Or for a personal decision, “What would I advise my best friend to do?” You’ll be astonished at how easily a quick dose of detachment can help you rise above short-term emotion. – Chip Heath and Dan Heath


Source and thanks to: Decisive by Chip Heath and Dan Heath