On Anchoring Effects and Soup Sales

This week’s book learning is from ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ by Daniel Kahneman.

Visitors to the San Francisco Exploratorium were asked one of the following 2 questions –

Is the height of the tallest redwood more or less than 1200 feet?
Is the height of the tallest redwood more or less than 180 feet?

The average answer for group 1 was 844 feet and group 2 was 282 feet. (Real average is around 300 ft)

In numerical terms, the anchoring index or
% difference between the 2 average heights (844-282=562)/ Difference between the “anchors” (1200 feet – 180 feet) was 55%.

And around 50% deviation is the norm in almost all experiments! Let’s take a simple example –

A supermarket offered Campbell soup at 10% discount. For half the day, the sign said “Limit of 12 per person” and then “No limits per person.” Shoppers purchased 7 cans when the limits were enforced i.e. an amazing twice as many as they bought when the limit was removed!

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Image by Navin Rajagopalan

Anchoring is a continuation of “priming“. It essentially confirms that we are hugely swayed by hints and signals – much more than we can even imagine. Next week, we will look at the effects of anchoring on price-setting and negotiations..

Here’s to looking out for anchoring effects in supermarkets this week!

Revisiting Post Himalaya Trek Commitments

I had made 2 commitments to myself post my Himalaya Trek and I was thinking about them today. The first was to stop complaining and the second one was to take more care of my health.

I don’t know about the first commitment. I guess the people around me must testify if there has been any improvement. Looking back myself, I don’t seem to have consciously worked on it. But, I do remember many instances in the past months when I have been thankful for the life and options I have.

The “stay in good health” is one that is pretty easily measurable. I generally have a simple question to test this – “Can I last a 90 minute football game?”. If it’s a yes, I am fit and if no, I need to get fitter.

I think I’ve made significant progress on this aspect over the past few months. I’ve made a few changes in my lifestyle –

1. Eating slightly less during dinner. While “slight” is the key word here (I have a huge appetite!), I have been careful and, in general, tried to eat until I am just less than full. I have read that that is good practice and hope to continue.

2. Stop taking the lift. I think I have managed to keep this up for the most part! And I find this very gratifying.

3. Stand more. The big step here was hacking together a standing desk. I am standing a LOT more than I used to now and this is incredibly gratifying as well.

I have had some interesting learnings here. First, I find myself more conscious about my posture when I’m standing. Second, I’ve learnt when to work standing and when to sit. My theory is that standing increases “tension” in our body as it’s most strenuous than sitting. As a result, standing is brilliant when I want to be “clinical”. I waste very little time standing and it’s ideal for tasks like clearing email, blogging in the morning when I have a fully formed idea in my head and in general, getting things done.

However, if I was to sit down and write a long letter, for example, or do something creative, standing is not idea. I can’t “ponder” or “muse” when standing. In short, I have found myself standing when I need to get things done and sitting when I need to be creative. Very interesting insight, I thought.

4. Walking more. Walking more has nicely morphed into biking more. This change in habit ranks very high among new habits I am very happy about. I used to do 20 odd minutes of exercise 2-3 times a week in the gym and that has now been replaced by biking. As a result, I am getting a cardio workout practically every day.

Besides, thanks to the ease of finding cycles via the Barclays Cycle Hire scheme, I am cutting a few journeys on the underground to just bike more. I’ve rediscovered biking for life. Love it!

On reflection, it’s really nice to see all these changes over the past few months. I need to think about how to embed the “no complaining” into my life. But, aside from that, the trek has inspired some really nice changes in my life. And given there are few better feelings than the feeling of being healthy, I am grateful for the experiment.

In short, not a perfect score, but definitely “better”. And as regulars here know, that’s how I like to roll..

Fun Friday: John Wooden’s advice on threats

A friend of mine sent this excerpt from legendary basketball coach John Wooden’s book, ‘On Leadership’. When John Wooden was coach for the UCLA basketball team, he never specified what his penalties were for any misconduct. He used this fictional story to explain why:

“A cowboy hitches his horse outside the local saloon, goes in, and orders a cold mug of beer. When he’s finished drinking it, he goes back outside, but his faithful horse is nowhere to be seen. The cowboy stomps back into the bar, slams his fists on the counter, and yells, “Somebody in here took my horse. Now, I’m going to order another cold mug of beer. When I’m through drinking it, I’m going to slowly walk back outside. I would strongly suggest whoever took my horse bring it back and hitch it to the hitching post. Otherwise, I’m gonna do what I did down in Texas – exactly the same thing as I did down in Texas.”

Image Source

The cowboy orders another mug of beer, drinks it, and walks outside. Sure enough, his horse is at the hitching post. As he prepares to ride away, the bartender comes running out asks, “Say, fella that was very impressive. But I’ve got to ask ya, “What did you do down in Texas when they took your horse?'” The cowboy looks down at the bartender and says, “I walked home.”

John Wooden said that individuals who knew exactly what the penalty was for a particular act could subconsciously measure the risk against the reward. That person may decide the risk was worth it. Those under Wooden’s leadership didn’t know the penalties they would face, like the cowboys in the story. They feared the unknown more than the known as they couldn’t determine if the risk was worth the reward of breaking the rules.


I found this story hilarious and I agree fully on the use of threats. They may work once or twice but over a long period, they generally don’t. I feel respect works better than fear.

What do you folks think? I’m especially interested to here from the parents who have the tough job of disciplining a kid.. :-)

The least we can do

is treat people below our rank or social status with respect. That’s just good character.

Great people take it up an extra notch. They have the ability to make people they meet feel special. That’s charisma.

Neither behaviour is THAT hard or complex.

But then again,

“Wisdom is pretty plain and unimpressive. Be nice. Floss regularly. Do your best. Don’t let the grass grow on the path to your friend’s house. Wisdom is always simple, but not easy.” | Caterina Fake

Work Hacks Wednesday: Be Known for Something

This work hack probably applies most to fresh starters. The concept is simple – be known for something.

What does ‘something’ constitute? It is purposely vague. It really can be anything. That said, a skill that pays dividends at work, directly or indirectly helps a LOT. Financial modelling is a direct work related skill, for example. Video editing is an indirect skill that could be useful in presentations that allow for creativity. Essentially, if anyone who knows you is contemplating building an important model or creating an important video, you should be the port of call. That’s a really good place to be.

How do you go about making a name for yourself? First, get insanely good at what you do. If you have set your sights on excel modelling, work to become the best modeller in the world. Be so good that they cannot ignore you.

If you are the creative type, then look for opportunities that allow you to showcase creativity e.g. internal presentations or studies, annual offsites etc.

As the years go by, we tend to specialize in one or many things and develop a reputation. This is much harder when you just get started, though. And hence, so much more valuable.

It helps being an expert in something i.e. being an inch wide and mile deep.

The Luggage Incident

I was getting on the train from the airport. The uniformed guy on the platform said the doors would be closing in a minute. A mother and son duo were carrying a huge load of bags. Hearing the announcement, the mother ran in and attempted holding the door open. That’s about when the son dropped his huge bag.

That’s when I ran out, attempting to help. But, by the time I reached out, the son had picked up the heavy bag and made it in with a few seconds to spare. The mother and son thanked me profusely. So much so that I felt embarrassed. I hadn’t really done anything! I had just attempted to help. They had made it across the line themselves.

It left me wondering if that’s what we tend to need in most situations – the mental support that we would need in case we struggled. Research shows that the most secure kids come from families where they have felt loved. The security that comes from knowing your parents love you and will support you no matter what is, as a result, incredibly powerful.

We don’t always need it, it seems. We just need to know it’s there.

Biking

I remember being very envious of kids who biked (“cycled” by Indian vocabulary) to school. To a kid who came to school in a packed school van, biking seemed to be so independent, so cool.

My grandmother abhorred the idea of me riding out on the “main road”. So, it was a long while before I finally got my bike. I still remember getting a letter signed by the others in the house saying I fully deserved to own a bike, especially since all my friends had their own! Thus, I got my first bike, a black Hercules top gear with five gears! The rules were clearly laid out – I was forbidden to cross any main junction without a friend with me. So, a certain dear friend would bike out of route, come home, “pick me up” and we would then head out to play.

I have many great memories growing up with this bike. We used to get around the area a lot and bikes were our chosen means of transport. This was until the first scooterettes came along. Biking went out of fashion real quick.

Fast forward about 9 years, I am rediscovering the joys of biking again! Thanks to a couple of projects that have taken away my weekly football and exercising time, I was looking for a way to make sure I exercised. And the solution was rather simple. I just ended up replacing a 30 minute bus ride on my way back with a bike ride. And, to avoid the headache of owning a bike in London (i.e. to deal with possibility of theft etc), I just signed up for ‘Boris Bikes’ or the Barclays Cycle Hire.

I’ve been on this scheme for 2 weeks now and have been loving it. I bike around practically every day. These bikes are ungainly and heavy as they are built for rough use and are hence ideal for exercise!

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I just went on a really wonderful 40 minute ride around Hyde Park today amidst beautiful sunshine. I have been seeing a lot more of the city over the last couple of weeks and loving it!

Falling in love with biking all over again.

On The Polgar Sisters

This week’s book learning is from ‘Talent is Overrated’ by Geoff Colvin.

Laszlo Polgar, a Hungarian educational psychologist had a thesis – great performers are made, not born. After writing his book titled “Bring Up Genius”, he publicly asked for a woman who would marry him and raise kids to test his theories. Klara, a school teacher actually agreed!

So, when their daughter Susan was 4 years old, Laszlow and Klara began teaching her chess.

(The reason behind Chess is unclear. It is believed that a combination of easy feedback and the fact that it was a heavily male dominant sport influenced Laszlo’s choice.)

Soon, the younger daughters – Sophia and Judith were also put into the program. All 3 sisters were home-schooled with chess being the focus. Their family accumulated a library of 10,000 chess books!

The results were astounding. By age 17, Susan became the first woman to qualify for what was then the ‘Men’s world championship.’ It took Chess a few years to overcome it’s gender discrimination and Susan was finally crowned world champion at 21. Judith, the youngest Polgar, has gone on to become the undisputed greatest female chess player of all time. She is the game’s youngest ever grandmaster at age 15 and still Women’s number 1 and amongst the top 10 ten chess players in the world!

The Polgar sisters and Laszlo – Image source

I found the Polgar story simply incredible. Enough said.

Here’s to practicing hard at our “art”, Polgar style, this week!

Giving Yourself a Chance

A friend of mine has been a Liverpool football club fan since the 1980’s. (He must have been stereotyped as a “glory hunter” in those days :-)). He remembers the glory days very clearly. And he has been watching the current season with nervous trepidation. Liverpool have not yet won a game this season but he feels they have finally got a young manager (Brendan Rodgers) who has the potential to restore Liverpool to the glory days.

Even if they’ve been playing good football, Liverpool haven’t clicked yet and he is wary of a knee jerk reaction from the owner and the fans.

“It took Sir Alex Ferguson 4 years to win a trophy! Look at what he’s done in the subsequent 20 years at Manchester United. Can you imagine how many more could have done so much more with a little bit of patience? We’ve got to give him a chance.” – he said passionately.

Absolutely right. Longevity is a beautiful thing. It is a true test of resilience and character. And we are often denied the chance to demonstrate this by an impatient family member, boss or friend. Or so we say.

Perhaps we should learn to give ourselves a chance, first?