Tipping points

I found this chart about electric vehicle adoption in China intriguing.

In early 2020, both China and the US were at about 5% penetration as a % of in-year sales. In early 2021, we got to 10%.

However, at some point in mid 2021, China’s penetration began taking off. In the last few months we’ve seen averages above 20% with a high greater than 25%. It definitely feels like it has hit a tipping point while the US has stagnated.

It got me wondering about that tipping point. Is the 15%-20% range the tipping point? Or was it better electric car charging infrastructure? High gas prices?

There isn’t enough data on this. But, looking at Norway’s new car sales, it is fascinating to see adoption take off around the 20% mark.

Tipping points are fascinating.

If we’re in the business of attempting to bring about transformational change, paying attention to and optimizing for them is often the difference between success and failure.