The McKinsey Global Institute shared an interesting chart analyzing the potential for remote work within various economies.
As with such analyses, the absolute numbers matter less than the trend.
In the US, MGI estimates ~40% of work can be done hybrid or fully remote. Software/technology, for example, falls squarely within this 40%.
We are still in day 1 of figuring out what the office looks like post COVID-19. Most technology companies are expected to share updated guidance for what they expect over the summer.
A couple weeks ago, I polled about 50 colleagues on one day about how often they expect to be in the office. Nearly every one of them said either 2 or 3 to meet colleagues in person. No one expected to be back 5 days a week again.
For industries like technology, I expect some form of hybrid work to be the norm. Once a few big companies make it the norm, it will be hard for others to require employees to come in 5 days a week.
There will always be exceptions. More companies will be remote than before.
But, if this pandemic results in a change in the default from on-site work to hybrid work, that will be a meaningful change indeed.