A simple way to reframe getting things wrong this time is that it is the tuition we pay to get things right the next time.
It is then on us to make sure we’re making the most of that tuition.
Getting things wrong aren’t one-off events. In fact, the more we analyze our mistakes, the more connections we make with seemingly unrelated mistakes.
Make the most of that tuition.
“When they go low, we should go high” is one of those ideas that is infinitely easier in theory than practice.
The flip side of our desire to reciprocate a good deed is our desire to pay back a bad one.
It is of course wiser to let it pass.
But we earn our wisdom from ignoring (sometimes fighting) such impulses.
“Don’t overreact to any stimulus” is both as simple and as profound as universally applicable life advice as it gets.
Science: Analyzing each mistake and ensuring we learn from it.
Art: Knowing which mistakes to spend our time on.
When we prioritize our time, it is normal to prioritize items that have symmetrical upside and downside risk. These are items that present a good amount of upside when done well and vice versa when done poorly.
The challenge, however, is slotting in items that present asymmetrical upside and downside risk – especially those that have little upside but prevent significant downside.
These items are challenging because they often fall to the bottom of the priority list because they aren’t as interesting as other items with more upside. We then don’t do them well and are left with a lot to clean up.
Pay attention to both the upside and downside risk of any item on your priority list.
Especially the downside risk.
“If you have competence, you pretty much know its boundaries already. To ask the question of whether you are past the boundary is to answer it.” | Charlie Munger
When we are well-calibrated on what we don’t know, we do a better job preparing for the problems this ignorance can bring.
That preparation, in turn, leads to see beyond corners and anticipate the twists and turns ahead.
A simple predictor of mastery in any discipline is our ability to see beyond/around the corner.
Amateurs react, pros respond, masters anticipate.
When the transition to solar energy began moving at exponential pace a few years ago, the biggest open question was how we’d solve the daily intermittency problem. For example, what happens when there is cloud cover? And what happens during the evening peak (4pm-9pm)?
The answer was batteries. As battery prices continue to come crashing down, we’re starting to see this play out. This graph shows how this transition is playing out.
In April 2021, solar power was already dominating consumption. Now, thanks to batteries, stored power is beginning to take a big chunk of the evening peak as well.
I see this play out on a micro-level as well. This is exactly how we power our home. We avoid using any power from the grid through the evening peak because of the battery (80% contribution) and conscious usage (i.e., we avoid using heavy usage appliances – 20% contribution).
This combination of solar and batteries is going to increasingly become a no-brainer combination in most places that receive decent sunlight – as Texas continues to demonstrate. For years, California was the undisputed leader in solar deployments and battery storage. But Texas is on pace to add more grid batteries than any other state and could end 2024 ahead of California in total solar deployment. This rise is thanks to Texas’ famously decentralized energy marketplace – energy entrepreneurs are quick to spot a good deal.
Long may this continue.
Note: We still don’t have a solution for seasonal intermittency. Given the pace of innovation here, I hope to have a similarly positive update on that in 2027.
A simple way to understand how meritocratic and apolitical an organization is by observing the delay between negative/value destroying actions and consequences.
The more the delay, the more the politics.
A mark of a person’s strength of character is the likelihood they give someone credit where it is due in situations where they don’t have to.
