Category: Everything else

Science: Analyzing each mistake and ensuring we learn from it.

Art: Knowing which mistakes to spend our time on.

When we prioritize our time, it is normal to prioritize items that have symmetrical upside and downside risk. These are items that present a good amount of upside when done well and vice versa when done poorly.

The challenge, however, is slotting in items that present asymmetrical upside and downside risk – especially those that have little upside but prevent significant downside.

These items are challenging because they often fall to the bottom of the priority list because they aren’t as interesting as other items with more upside. We then don’t do them well and are left with a lot to clean up.

Pay attention to both the upside and downside risk of any item on your priority list.

Especially the downside risk.

“If you have competence, you pretty much know its boundaries already. To ask the question of whether you are past the boundary is to answer it.” | Charlie Munger

When we are well-calibrated on what we don’t know, we do a better job preparing for the problems this ignorance can bring.

That preparation, in turn, leads to see beyond corners and anticipate the twists and turns ahead.

A simple predictor of mastery in any discipline is our ability to see beyond/around the corner.

Amateurs react, pros respond, masters anticipate.

When the transition to solar energy began moving at exponential pace a few years ago, the biggest open question was how we’d solve the daily intermittency problem. For example, what happens when there is cloud cover? And what happens during the evening peak (4pm-9pm)?

The answer was batteries. As battery prices continue to come crashing down, we’re starting to see this play out. This graph shows how this transition is playing out.

In April 2021, solar power was already dominating consumption. Now, thanks to batteries, stored power is beginning to take a big chunk of the evening peak as well.

I see this play out on a micro-level as well. This is exactly how we power our home. We avoid using any power from the grid through the evening peak because of the battery (80% contribution) and conscious usage (i.e., we avoid using heavy usage appliances – 20% contribution).

This combination of solar and batteries is going to increasingly become a no-brainer combination in most places that receive decent sunlight – as Texas continues to demonstrate. For years, California was the undisputed leader in solar deployments and battery storage. But Texas is on pace to add more grid batteries than any other state and could end 2024 ahead of California in total solar deployment. This rise is thanks to Texas’ famously decentralized energy marketplace – energy entrepreneurs are quick to spot a good deal.

Long may this continue.

Note: We still don’t have a solution for seasonal intermittency. Given the pace of innovation here, I hope to have a similarly positive update on that in 2027.

A simple way to understand how meritocratic and apolitical an organization is by observing the delay between negative/value destroying actions and consequences.

The more the delay, the more the politics.

A mark of a person’s strength of character is the likelihood they give someone credit where it is due in situations where they don’t have to.

I read a story nearly twenty-five years about a young man who received a ring as a gift from his dying father. He thought of the ring as his good luck charm and wore it every day since.

A few years later, he went through a horrible spell and was on the verge of losing everything he owned after a spate of bad luck. Out of luck, he just walked aimlessly for hours and sat down near the side of the road.

He saw his Dad’s ring, took it out of his finger and began playing with it as he contemplated how hopeless it all seemed. Just as he did so, he noticed some writing on the inside.

It said “This too shall pass.”

He was elated – it felt like a message from his late father. He took the message to heart and decided to fight his way back.

And of course, the story goes onto have a positive ending after that moment.

Years later, I still recall that story from time to time. “This too shall pass” is the essence of the Bhagavad Gita in Hindu philosophy. It is also a big part of stoic philosophy.

It takes it place in the pantheon of timeless philosophical wisdom because it tells us the truth about this experience and provides instant perspective.

There’s no point getting too high or too low about this current moment.

Good or bad, this too shall pass.

A best practice in any debate – take the time to articulate the opposing viewpoint before sharing a counter point.

The more heated the debate, the harder this is to do.

“Frame failure as an AFOG (Another F*cking Opportunity for Growth). You are more likely to recover from failure if you invest energy into unpacking the lessons.” | Prof Carole Robin

I was reflecting on a couple of my recent failures and chuckled as I remembered reading this.

It gets to my recent note about ordeals. It is no fun going through them – but once we get through them, we might as well soak in all the learning.

The goal isn’t to avoid failures or ordeals. That isn’t going to happen.

The goal is to experience different kinds… and get better each time.