Making decisions as my future self

I’ve been going for a run nearly most weekday mornings over the past year (thanks to Peter Attia). When I started doing these runs around this time last year, it was winter and the thought of stepping out at near freezing temperatures wasn’t appetizing.

But, of course, every time I did it, I came back feeling great.

So, over time, every time the resistance within asked the question – “Do you really want to step out in the cold?”, I ignored my current self and made the decision as my future self.

It is a simple way to get over the resistance – make more decisions as our future selves. In time, these repeated decisions will become worthwhile habits that our future selves will be grateful for.

Tarangire National Park

#OurWorldIsAwesome – Edition 5


Over the summer, we had the ridiculous good fortune to visit four National Parks in Tanzania and Kenya. As a mega fan of all things David Attenborough and nature shows, this was a dream come true.

Tarangire National Park was the first National parks we visited. At 1100 sq. miles/2800 sq kilometers, it is comparable to the size of Yosemite national park or twice the size of a London or Los Angeles. There’s a lot to say about these parks. I thought I’d share a collection of my favorite photos instead.

The park is memorable thanks to its amazing population of Baobab trees. They are instantly recognizable to those who’ve watched The Lion King as Rafiki’s home.

We went during the winter – even with no leaves, these trees captured my heart. They stand out in the landscape. Their massive circumference lends them a special majesty.

Here’s a BaoBab with a giraffe eating near it (for scale).

That’s “Zazu” for the Lion King fans.

A gorgeous long crested eagle..

Here was a young Simba after a Zebra meal.

Tarangire is famous for its elephant herds. Understandably so. These tuskers have impressive tusks.

A couple of friends on my team gave me an earful when I shared that I planned to go on this trip camera-less. I am so grateful for that earful. All of these (and more) were from just a day at Tarangire National Park.

Same outcome, different emotions

One of the many changes inspired by Casey Means’ Good Energy is to optimize for 10,000 steps every day. A simple tactic to achieve this on days I go to work is to park far away from the building where I work.

Funnily, prior to optimizing for more steps, I used to feel a shred of annoyance when I didn’t find a parking spot right next to the building where I worked.

I now willingly opt in to taking the scenic route instead.

Same outcome, different emotions.

A good reminder that so much just depends on what we’re optimizing for.

Better at being better

Seth shared a post yesterday that struck a chord. Sharing in full.

In most competitive markets, when an organization offers a new benefit, others will quickly move to match it.

This means that it’s hard to justify the hard work of creating something better, because it’s just going to become a new standard. It doesn’t pay for a credit card company to invest in customer service, the thinking goes, because that won’t pay for itself, it’ll just raise costs for the leader and for all of its competitors. That’s how the race to the bottom begins.

Perhaps it pays to simply focus on being better at making a profit, or being better at getting new customers, or being better at making the stock price go up. These proxies push short-term thinking and aren’t resilient.

What truly changes the game is when an organization decides to commit to being better at being better.

That’s hard to do and difficult to compete against.

Thanks Seth.

Stay on the bus

There’s a lovely passage from Finnish photographer Arno Rafael Minkkinen in Oliver Burkeman’s “Four Thousand Weeks.” He is describing the Helsinki bus station to students of photography.

“There are two dozen platforms there, he explains, with several different bus lines departing from each one—and for the first part of its journey, each bus leaving from any given platform takes the same route through the city as all the others, making identical stops.

Think of each stop as representing one year of your career, Minkkinen advises photography students. You pick an artistic direction—perhaps you start working on platinum studies of nudes—and you begin to accumulate a portfolio of work. Three years (or bus stops) later, you proudly present it to the owner of a gallery. But you’re dismayed to be told that your pictures aren’t as original as you thought, because they look like knockoffs of the work of the photographer Irving Penn; Penn’s bus, it turns out, had been on the same route as yours.

Annoyed at yourself for having wasted three years following somebody else’s path, you jump off that bus, hail a taxi, and return to where you started at the bus station. This time, you board a different bus, choosing a different genre of photography in which to specialize. But a few stops later, the same thing happens: you’re informed that your new body of work seems derivative, too. Back you go to the bus station.

But the pattern keeps on repeating: nothing you produce ever gets recognized as being truly your own.

What’s the solution?

“It’s simple,” Minkkinen says. “Stay on the bus. Stay on the fucking bus.”

A little farther out on their journeys through the city, Helsinki’s bus routes diverge, plunging off to unique destinations as they head through the suburbs and into the countryside beyond. That’s where the distinctive work begins. But it begins at all only for those who can muster the patience to immerse themselves in the earlier stage—the trial-and-error phase of copying others, learning new skills, and accumulating experience.”

“Stay on the fucking bus” indeed.

H/T: Sasha’s blog for reminding me about this story

The nature of growth

Matt Ridley’s in his book “How Innovation works” makes the case that growth doesn’t ever have to stop. Once we figure out how to produce more, we learn how to produce more with less. Until our efficiencies far outweigh our appetite.

Light is a great example. Once the cost of light goes down, more people leave their lights on. However, the efficiency of LEDs mean we’re more efficient than ever before.

This chart (source) is a great example. As a share of wallet, the US has gotten incredibly efficient at feeding its citizens. Over time, all the economies in the right will keep doing more with less.

Then the challenge will be to reduce the share of consumer expenditures on quality food. And so on.

More. Then more with less.

Over and underestimates

YouGov shared a fascinating chart from a poll asking Americans to estimate the size of groups. 3 things became evident.

First, Americans vastly overestimated the size of minority groups. Check out the difference in estimates of those who have >$500,000, are transgender, are muslim/native american/jewish, and so on.

Second, they underestimated the size of majority groups. More people are Christian, fully vaccinated against COVID-19, have flown on a plane, and have graduated high school than others thought.

Third, it demonstrated just how bad we are, on average, on estimations. Biases rule.