Bill Gates has an excellent post on his blog on everything we need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine. He breaks down the challenges nicely
First, we need to move faster than we’ve ever moved to create a vaccine while ensuring a) safety and b) efficacy
Second, we need one of the 8-10 most promising candidates in the ~115 candidate pipeline to do well in the trials. The challenge here is that some of the most promising candidates are also pioneering a new approach to vaccination where we replace injecting an antigen with teaching the body to create the antigen.
Third, we’ll need to make trade-offs between solutions that may not be perfect. The small pox vaccine wasn’t perfect – but it did the job. Similarly, a vaccine with ~70% efficacy may be all we need.
Third, we need to manufacture and distribute 7 billion doses of the vaccine as fast as possible. This is fraught with its own set of complications.
But, as he points out, organizations and nations are coming together in wonderful ways to make this possible.
The timeline of this vaccine will be the single biggest determinant of when (relative) normalcy will return to the world. So, I’m grateful to Bill for laying this out so beautifully.
I hope you find 5 minutes to go read it. Again, it is here.
Marie Curie discovered that radiation was emitted from the decay of an atom over time. Then, Marie and Pierre Curie found the half life of carbon resulting in “Carbon dating.” Radiometric dating has been key to scientific advances showing that mythical stories about the earth being 6000 years old are just stories – not facts.
Thanks to Carbon dating, we’ve learnt about our past and the movement of Homo sapiens. This is thanks to a story written by the charcoal in our ancestor’s bones that we could only understand once we understood atomic physics.
On the flip side, our many technological advances have shrunk time in a way we’d never have imagined. We live in a time when everything is expected to happen instantly or in “real time.” The same advances have led to a group of entrepreneurs to fund a 10,000 year clock or the “Clock of the Long Now.” The builders of this clock intend this to be a nod to longer term thinking.
Will we take the long term perspective or let the short term triumph? Will we be high frequency traders or good ancestors?
Only time will tell.
“This is the paradox of our age. On the one hand, we have short attention spans and an ability to measure time in minuscule increments. But, on the other, we are able to trace human actions back to thousands of years and also have an appreciation for the fact that this advance was 500 years in the making.” | Steven Johnson
Source and thanks to: How we got to now by Steven Johnson
Every advance in measuring time has involved a new science. We progressed through –
- Astronomy: Sundials had a fair amount of margin of error
- Dynamics: Thanks to Galileo, we had pendulums and higher accuracy
- Electromagnetics: The discovery of Quartz gave us microsecond accuracy
- Quantum mechanics: Atomic clocks, then, led us to nano second accuracy
At the start of the 21st century, Quartz’s microsecond-level accuracy was a revelation. It enabled modern day computers which need precise time measurement.
Then, Niels Bohr’s observation of the consistency of the Cesium atom led to the use of Cesium by the “International Conference of Weighs and Measures” in 1967 to adjust any errors from Quartz.
The power of accurate measurement of time is that measuring time is key to measuring space. Every time we glance down at our phone to find our location, we’re triangulating between at least 4 of 24 atomic clocks that tell us our location based on the last measured time (mindblowing!). Of course, we know this as the Global Positioning System or GPS.
“The next time you look down at your watch, think of the embedded layers of human ingenuity that make this all possible. As more progress happens, layers of ingenuity get buried. But, this can also obscure just how far we’ve come.” | Steven Johnson
Hat tip: How we got to now by Steven Johnson
Galileo Galilei, attending mass as a college student in the 15th century, noticed a pendulum that seemed to keep consistent time. He didn’t act upon that thought as there was no real need for time keeping. He became a math professor and began more or less inventing science.
As shipping became commonplace, keeping time became important as it helped indirectly measure location too. So, accurate time keeping became valuable. And, Galileo went back to work on his idea to create the pendulum clock – and did.
Denison, in the US, decided to make a cheaper watch and his non jeweled watch sold at $3.50 versus 40 dollars and was a huge hit. A Chicago businessman called Sears caught on and created the Sears Roebuck collection by mail order (the first mail order business). Just as printing gave ru=ise to the need for spectacles, transportation required standardized time. So, an American railroad engineer proposed the 4 time zones that stand today from November 1883. A year later, the whole world’s time zones were standardized based on GMT.
The watch revolution became critical in the Industrial Age as “clocking in” was invented and as industrialists tracked everything using time. While workers adjusted to the new paradigm, the elites rebelled. “Romanticism” in this age was all about ditching the tyranny of time, waking up late, etc. – Steven Johnson (paraphrased)
Source and thanks to: How we got to now by Steven Johnson. How we got to now beautifully chronicles the history of stuff we take for granted.
The combination of germ theory and the treatment of water with Chlorine led to a giant leap in public health. Millions upon millions of lives were saved and modern city living was made possible.*
Soon, companies began developing products with Chlorine. However, the rise of the clean industry was due to the wife of a San Francisco entrepreneur who was convinced that a less concentrated Chlorine based bleach could revolutionize home cleaning. She began giving out free samples to her customers and, thus, Clorox was born. Soon, the clean industry became the lynchpin of advertising, thus created the “soap opera.”
The clean revolution had some interesting side effects. Thanks to chlorinated water, we created our first modern swimming pools and the first modern bathing suits followed. Around this time (thanks to this?), basic attitudes toward exposing the female body were reinvented. Of course, many other factors – Hollywood, the feminism movement- contributed. But, very few recognize the role that clean water played in contributing toward this massive societal shift in attitudes toward the freedom of women.
“The other big contribution of the clean movement is the clean rooms that produce today’s microprocessors. They are cleaned by pure H2O that is undrinkable as it is too clean. Irony abounds. :)” | Steven Johnson (paraphrased)
Source and thanks to: How we got to now by Steven Johnson
*Note: Organizations like The Gates Foundation is doing some incredible work in making sure the gains from clean are spread evenly. Half the population still doesn’t have access to clean drinking water. We’ve made a lot of progress since the 1860s but still have a long way to go… :)
When Hungarian scientist Ignaz Semmelweiss noticed that maternity ward doctors were killing more women when they came straight after working with cadavers, he suggested that they should wash their hands, ideally with antiseptics. Sadly, he was endlessly ridiculed for this preposterous idea and died in an insane asylum.
Thanks to research on epidemics like cholera (by John Snow in London), scientists like Robert Koch and Louis Pasteur and better microscopes by the German company Zeiss glass, germ theory finally came to the mainstream. Koch figured out how to measure the amount of bacteria in a sample of water – a huge innovation in public health. Until then, you had to wait to see if less people died after you made a change to the water supply to judge if your experiment was successful.
Then, scientists began experimenting with Chlorine mixed in water – again decried at first. In response, John Leal conducted one of the riskiest experiments in history by adding Chlorine into the New Jersey water supply. He was tried in court as he was initially seen as a madman.
The results, however, proved him right. And, his decision to not patent his innovation makes him among history’s greatest unsung heroes.
“What made John Leal’s actions very noble was the fact that he chose not to patent it. Unencumbered, chlorine adoption spread all over the world. In the US alone, it is estimated to have improved adult mortality by 46% and child mortality by early 70%. One of the givens until then was the high probability of losing a child. The people behind this revolution didn’t get rich or become famous. But, they impacted our lives in incredible ways. ” | Steven Johnson (paraphrased)
Source: How we got to now by Steven Johnson (History of clean water continued from “Raising Chicago by 10 feet“)
When Dan Ariely built a chest of drawers that he bought from IKEA, he didn’t enjoy the process. But, once he finished, he noticed that he looked at the chest of drawers a lot and felt a sense of pride.
So, Dan, Mike Norton, and Dan Mochon conducted an experiment where participants were asked to make origami cranes. When they built easy cranes, they found that the creators of the cranes were willing to pay 5x more for their creations than neutral buyers. This difference went up for harder-to-build cranes.
P E Duff discovered this idea in the 1950s when the easy-to-make cake recipe didn’t sell all that much. Sales picked up when they made the recipe more complicated and included complicated instructions to decorate cakes with frosting.
Zappos built its reputation as a great place to work by allowing their employees to build their own experiences. They could build their cubicles and their own call scripts. Zappos understands that we’re all toddlers. And, like all toddlers, we love things we build.
We often dream of paying others to do our chores, cook our food, etc. But, given how much we love putting in work and tasting the fruits of our labor, are these dreams contributing to feeling alienated in our lives? In the long run, these minor annoyances may be our sweetest memories. A little sweat equity pays itself back in meaning. And, that is a high return on investment. – Dan Ariely
Source: Payoff by Dan Ariely, The IKEA Effect study
Bell Labs, the “idea factory,” was a result of anti trust law. Between 1930-84, all phone calls went through AT&T. They convinced the government a monopoly was necessary. So, the government made a deal with AT&T to make its patents/ideas public in return. Thus, Bell Labs’ inventions were open to everyone.
In 1910, inventor Lee de Forest tried amplifying radio signals to transmit human voice. This was a successor of the morse code telegraph invented by Marconi. Bell Labs’ engineers built on this to invent radio broadcasting.
While de Forest hoped radio broadcasting would spread classical music, it was jazz that actually broke through. Jazz sounds were better suited for primitive radios. Thus, the radio was monumental in bringing African-American culture into the white American living room.
Amplifiers followed. Then, “distortion” led by guitarists Jimi Hendrix and Led Zeppelin. And, alongside, in World War II, a device called SONAR began being used in World War II to detect submarines. This was thanks to a Canadian scientist who was intrigued by the challenge of preventing sea crashes like the titanic by bouncing sound waves off objects in the sea. Thanks to sonar, ultrasound followed.
(The story of sound continued from last week)
Amplifiers freed us from any constraints that we had artificially solved via operas and cathedrals. Adolf Hitler was one of the first exponents of this. But, it also made Martin Luther King’s speeches possible. Similarly, SONAR’s most powerful use was ultrasound which helped countless mothers during their pregnancy. But, it also led to massive female infanticide in Asia. Technology has always been a double edged sword. | Steven Johnson (paraphrased)
Source and thanks to: How we got to now by Steven Johnson
If you ran a delivery business, you might intuitively imagine that your delivery route optimization algorithm should optimize for the shortest route to the destination.
UPS, however, moved away from trying to find the shortest route. Instead, they avoid turning through oncoming traffic at a junction. This “no left turn” (in countries with right handed traffic) rule may mean going in the opposite direction of the final destination. However, it reduces the chances of an accident and cuts delays caused by waiting for a gap in the traffic, which wastes fuel.
This simple idea means the company saves 10 million gallons less fuel, emits 20,000 tonnes less carbon dioxide, while delivering 350,000 more packages every year. (Mythbusters confirmed this in a test)
Prof Kendall, writing on Quartz, asks – could we plan roads that make it more difficult to turn through the traffic? It would take a brave city planner to implement this, but if UPS can save 10 million gallons of fuel, how much could a whole city or even a whole country save?
The success of UPS’s policy raises the question, why don’t we all avoid turning left (or right, depending on what country we’re in), as we drive around cities on our daily commutes? If everyone did it, the carbon savings would be huge and there’d probably be far less congestion. – Prof Kendall on Quartz
Source and thanks to: Qz.com
This post is part of “The 200 words project.” I aim to synthesize a story from a book (and, occasionally a blog or article) I’ve read within 200 words consecutive Sundays for around 45 weeks of the year. I’ve also recently started a new Sunday project that synthesizes 5 things you need to know about tech this week – if you’re interested, more on that on NotesbyAda.com.
Swedish agency Åkestam Holst spent 2016 using Ikea ads to explore family dynamics in all shades. Then, they came up with an ad that was a masterclass in how to rethink advertising.
With “Retail Therapy,” Ikea’s website renamed products to match common Google searches in Sweden. Here are a couple of examples –
“My daughter is out all night” – a disco ball
“My partner annoys me” – a double-desk separated by a cubby wall
“He can’t say he loves me” – A magnetic writing board :)
Additionally, this campaign was also smart because high volume searches for terms like “He can’t say he loves me” lifted Ikea’s product ads to the top of the Google Adwords pile. AdWeek accurately called it “a visibility coup so maniacally clever that it’s hard to hold a grudge.”
We don’t sell products. Instead, we sell solutions to problems. Ikea’s ad campaign was a wonderful illustration of that idea. Well played, Ikea.
“Whether it’s a snoring husband, a never-ending gaming son or any other relationship problem you have, Ikea can come to the rescue … or at least put a smile on your face while you keep Googling for an answer.” – Ikea Retail therapy
Source and thanks to: Adweek, The Retail Theory ad spot (1 min, 36 seconds)