Author: alearningaday

Author Steven Johnson shared this anecdote in his newsletter.

“Sometime in the late spring I read H. W. Brands’ epic account of the California Gold Rush, The Age of Gold, published in 2002. I could easily spend the rest of this essay just recounting the greatest hits from it, but there was one mind-bending fact that has stuck with me since I finished the book.

Because the Sierra Nevada—and the Basin and Range Province to the east of them (including Death Valley)—were such inhospitable environments for human passage, news of the discovery of gold in the western foothills of the Sierra reached Australia and China and Chile months before it reached the east coast of the United States.

Without a railroad or a telegraph line to connect the United States from coast to coast, the maximum speed of information was gated by the maximum speed of ships, and sailing from San Francisco to the Atlantic Seaboard took months, if you made it at all. You either had to sail around the horn of South America—one of the deadliest seas in the world—or sail to Panama and then attempt the land crossing of the Panama isthmus, with hopes of connecting with a ship bound for New York or Boston at the other end.

Either way, the information you carried moved at a snail’s pace compared to a Clipper ship riding the Pacific trade winds to Sydney. All of which meant there were Australian and Chinese prospectors arriving in the Sierra foothills before the President of the United States learned that gold had been discovered in California.”

It takes 6 hours to get across from one coast to another now. And the ability to transmit information across coasts – why, even to the rest of the world – is instant.

This was a fascinating reminder of how we take the progress we enjoy for granted.

Progress is often indistinguishable from magic.

“The more we pursue something, the more we achieve the opposite of what we truly want.” | Alan Watts

The more we pursue feeling better all the time, the less satisfied we become.

It reminded me of a learning I call “the law of unattraction” –  “The universe makes something happen when you have put in your best effort and are ready to walk away.” 

A good friend shared this short with me recently.

It goes – “I think every meeting should start out like this. Hey, we’re all gonna die and none of this really matters. So let’s keep that in mind before anybody gets too worked up in here.

Just to kinda set the tone.”

It is one of those beautiful messages that manages to be funny and insightful while spurring reflection.

Well played, Adam Frith.

Ni Xia Lian represented Luxembourg in table tennis at 61 years old. She won her first round and lost her second round to the current world number 1.

Lebron James is 39 – an age when most basketball players are well into their retirement. He still dominated the semi-finals against Serbia and led the US basketball team to Gold medals.

Kristen Faulkner started competitive cycling at age 25 while working as a venture capitalist in New York City. She won two gold medals in Paris as a 31 year old.

These examples call into question so many assumptions we normally hold about age and mastery. And, what’s more, these are just a few examples among so many from these Olympics.

It’s time to put away all those assumptions that hold us back.

There’s no one path or right path. What matters is a desire to be excellent, a commitment to progress, and a willingness to learn from every turn along the way.

It’s that time of year where we see broken records. The kind of records we don’t want broken.

Deadhorse, Alaska saw a record of 31.7 degrees this week. The average over the past 55 years was ~9 degrees.

The Great Barrier Reef in Australia saw 400 year old temperature records broken. When that happens, those incredibly colorful corals “bleach” and become a ghostly white. If these trends continue, we won’t have a Great Barrier Reef in 20-30 years. Just as likely is an ice-free arctic region.

It is easy to get pessimistic when we see all this. That is especially in the case during a big election year around the world. A large chunk of the world’s population is casting votes and electing leaders. Many of these leaders still walk around denying or minimizing anthropogenic (i.e., human created) climate change because it suits their personal interests. Such lying is abhorrent – but, sadly, politics and lying go together. It is just a question of degrees.

While we’re likely to have a collection these leaders elected around the world (balance of probability), we’re approaching the point where myopic policies will have a smaller and smaller impact on the rapid decarbonization of the economy.

This graph looks at energy costs in Germany. It doesn’t make sense to run systems based on coal and natural gas. The combination of solar and batteries is cheaper.

Lithium battery pack costs continue to plummet. This is even as we continue to find other non-rare earth mineral alternatives such as solid state and sodium ion batteries.

We don’t need to pick decarbonization because it is the right thing to do anymore. We can choose it because it is simply better and cheaper.

LED bulbs are cheaper and better than their predecessors.

Electric cars are cheaper over their lifetime and are a no brainer for folks with shorter commutes. But, more importantly, they’re smoother, require less maintenance, and a pleasure to drive.

Heat pumps are cheaper to operate than traditional boilers/air conditioning systems.

Geothermal heat systems are continuing to make progress – things are beginning to look very promising.

We still need technology to replace plastic. We haven’t cracked that. Plastic recycling is an illusion – the only real solution for the medium term is to ban single use plastic.

It isn’t clear if we’ll get to fusion. But it is a bet worth taking even as progress on solar and batteries continue to defy expectations.

We could all do more in our own lives – eating less red meat alone has an impact. But I think the highest leverage thing we can do is push for better understanding of the costs of decarbonization.

In most places around the world, the right option is also the cheap option. And it is getting cheaper by the day. That understanding will result in all of us pushing for the kind of systemic change that counts.

Climate change is a reality. We aren’t going to escape the consequences of a hundred fifty years of burning fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels are, at best a transition state for humanity. As Prof Deb Chachra lays out in her book about infrastructure, even if we use <1% of the energy from the sun, we could comfortably meet all of humanity’s energy needs.

Our energy future is shaping up to be more abundant, more decentralized, and more resilient.

So it is important to stay optimistic that we’ll escape the worst-case scenario… and, hopefully, just hopefully, we’ll give nature the opportunity bounce back.

If Chernobyl’s example is anything to go by, we have reasons to stay hopeful.

Dan – who authors one of my favorite blogs – shared a great 3 minute video that explains why the 400 meter is considered among the most painful events at the Olympics.

In sum, it is because it is at that uncomfortable length where you have to run at close to full pelt to win. However, no human can run it all out from start to finish.

As a result, a runner uses four different stores of energy. The first 50 meters involves the “ATP-CP” – the energy system that makes the explosive start possible. This lasts 5-10 seconds.

Next, the runner moves to anaerobic glycolysis – this burns glucose without oxygen, leading to lactic acid buildup and muscle fatigue. This is when the runner is running at ~90% of full capacity.

Next, the runner uses aerobic energy. However, this uses oxygen to break down glucose and cannot keep up with the demand.

This means the final 300-400 meters is when the runner taps their anaerobic energy reserves when the aerobic energy is too slow to fill the gaps. This results in lactic acid buildup that, in turn, means pain.

This means the last 100 meters is a test of the runner’s pain threshold. Whoever has the highest pain threshold at this point wins.

We’ve been watching a lot of track and field events over the past weeks. While every one of them looks challenging (in different ways), this video made me see the 400m in new light.

It also made me appreciate just how incredible our bodies are.

Take good care of it, we must.

“Most advertising sells, regardless of what’s on offer, insecurity and discontent.”

I can’t remember where I came across this quote.

It was thought provoking.

One of the most important habits we can cultivate for our long-term mental health is reminding ourselves every day that our current circumstances – no matter how good or bad – are temporary.

It is inevitable. Skip the surprise.

This too shall pass.

Charlie Munger once talked about how sensational Costco founder Jim Sinegal’s career was.

Podcaster David Senra asked Munger: Why are there so few speeches or interviews with Sinegal?

“He was busy working,” said Munger.

The most impressive people don’t spend their lives on social media or managing their publicity.

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It resonated.

H/T: Another of Morgan Housel’s masterclass posts

“Sometimes rock bottom is your trampoline.” | Danny Cho

This one made me chuckle. It makes for a powerful visual while being funny and true.

It definitely can be.

So much of life is what we make of it.