Transcribing audio

One of my favorite uses of Generative AI has been transcribing audio.

All of my posts used to be typed. Now, a significant chunk are simply me talking to ChatGPT, which then turns the speech into text reliably.

For years, voice never felt worth it. The editing overhead was higher than just typing. But now the equation has shifted – friction is dramatically lower as the quality is so high. That reduction in friction has changed the workflows.

That’s the interesting thing about AI. We hear grand predictions about human replacement, but the real story (for now at any rate) is that the technology helps make a collection of previously painful things much easier.

Each of these small but high-pain improvements, stitched together, can create real value. And taken as a whole, they hint at the scale of change ahead.

It’s a fascinating time to build technology products.

Electric shock vs. reflection

There was a recent fascinating experiment with a group of undergraduate students who are part of the digital/social media generation.

In the first half of the study, they experienced a collection of stimuli (a spanish guitar riff, an exposure to a cockroach, an electric shock, the sound of knife scraping) and were asked to share how much they’d pay to avoid the bad stimuli. Most folks said they’d pay $1.5 to $2 to avoid an electric shock.

They were then asked to entertain themselves with their thoughts for 15 minutes in an empty room. They were told that they could choose to experience one “randomly selected” stimulus during this period.

In reality, all participants were given the “electric shock” option. A computer recorded whether and how many times the participant chose to administer an electric shock.

25% of the women and ~70% of the men found it preferable to shock themselves rather than sit with their own thoughts (study summary).

Mindblowing.

Virality and extreme views

When I reflect on the biggest global changes we’ve seen in the past 20 years, I think of politics powered by social media and virality.

This graph beautifully shows the representation of extreme views in all traditional media vs. cable TV vs. social media.

As extreme views increasingly become commonplace, so does its place in politics.

New parent talk

When I talk to new parents, I give just one piece of advice: Keep extremely low expectations – and let life exceed them.

I don’t share tactical advice because every parent figures out the tactics over time. That’s not the hard part. The real challenge is managing your mindset – living through the inevitable ups and downs, and sitting with the discomfort of losing the control you once had.

It’s tempting to over-optimize: the nap schedule, the sleep routine, every regression or phase. But the truth is, babies are doing a tremendous amount just by growing and making sense of the world.

Routines will come with time. Consistency definitely helps and can be a high probability strategy for many kids. But outcomes won’t always match the plan.

And that’s okay.

No eight-year-old struggles forever with sleep or with getting to the bathroom to take a poop. These things work out in time.

The reason I love lowering expectations is because it reminds us to let go a little, stay consistent where it helps, and – most of all – calm down.

Crystal Hut

There’s an eatery on the slopes of Blackcomb Mountain at Whistler-Blackcomb in Canada called Crystal Hut. It’s on the far side of the mountain and takes effort to get to.

But once you get off the chair, you are drawn in by the smell of waffles and maple syrup.

When I got there, I was reminded of Scooby Doo following the smell of food. The smell was that memorable.

You then get to a small log cabin – that gets very crowded during lunch time – where friendly staff serve the tastiest waffles with exquisite maple syrup, berries and such. It’s been over more than a year since we went to Crystal Hut and I still think of the place every time I see a waffle.

I’ve eaten waffles many times over the years. They were all events that I had, for the most part, forgotten.

Not at Crystal Hut though.

It wasn’t an event, it was an experience.

It made me realize how the most memorable experiences have a way of engaging many of our senses. In this case, the combination of the view, the taste, and the smell combined to transform something seemingly ordinary to an unforgettable memory.

Gimli

One of my favorite characters in The Lord of the Rings trilogy is the dwarf Gimli. He begins as a pompous, proud dwarf and transforms into someone fiercely loyal, courageous, and funny.

There’s a great moment in the last movie, just as they’re about to make their final assault. They review the plan, and Gimli remarks – “Certainty of death. Small chance of success. What are we waiting for?”

It’s a line I think about often – partly for the grim humor in facing absurd odds, but mostly for the reminder that courage means acting anyway.

Starting with hypotheses

Whenever you’re starting something new, it helps to begin with hypotheses.

Hypotheses aren’t facts or certainties — just assumptions about how things might play out.

The next task is to test them. Use every conversation to stress-test your idea. Harsh criticism is especially valuable because it reveals weaknesses quickly.

After twenty such conversations, your hypothesis will either collapse or sharpen into a thesis worth acting on.

Then the time for debate is over.

It’s time to ship.

The idiot box and the reverse Flynn effect

Growing up, we used to have teachers call the television “the idiot box.” Spend too much time in front of the TV and we’ll all become idiots, they’d say. I was reminded of this when I learnt about “the reverse Flynn effect.”

The Flynn effect is the observed, long-term rise in fluid and crystallized intelligence (IQ) test scores across the 20th century, named after researcher James Flynn. In measures of general intelligence (GIQ), verbal intelligence (VIQ) and non-verbal intelligence (NIQ), scores tended up for every decade since world war II…

… until 2010.

Baz, Sezerel, et al, found the trend to be consistently downward since.

Across both boys and girls – with a stronger effect on girls.

While some of the biggest drops came during the COVID-19 pandemic, these trends have been heading downward since before 2020 – across both teens and adults.

That brings me back to the idiot box.

When I was growing up, we needed to go the idiot box, turn it on, and watch.

The difference now is that we’ve got a portable version of this idiot box in our pockets. And these trends are just the first-order effects.

Our phones are not just making us stupid. They’re making us angrier and more depressed.

Either we learn to use them carefully or they use us.