I saw excerpts from two papers from the National Bureau of Economic Research recently –
- One of them was how about the costs of climate change being borne right now.
In this paper, we examine several major vectors through which climate change affects US households, including cost increases associated with home insurance claims and increased cooling, as well as sources of increased mortality. Although we consider only a subset of climate costs over recent decades, we find an aggregate annual cost averaging between $400 and $900 per household; in 10 percent of counties, costs exceed $1,300 per household. Costs vary significantly by geography, with the largest costs occurring in some western regions of the United States, the Gulf Coast, and Florida.
- Another was about the economic impact of Brexit
This paper examines the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time.
As with any analysis that involves so many variables, the trends matter more than the absolute numbers.
Reading the summary of both papers made me think about how complex systems change. We can debate interpretations endlessly, but the underlying forces continue to operate regardless of our opinions.
Reality doesn’t care if you agree.
A Learning a Day 