Not a pass and not a kick

A friend made an insightful observation the other day about the importance of not falling into a habit of giving yourself a pass.

The more you do that, the less you push to learn, improve, and do better.

The opposite of a good idea is also a good idea. And while it isn’t helpful to habitually give ourselves a pass when we play sub-par, it is equally unhelpful if we just responded by repeatedly kicking ourselves/beating ourselves up.

The more you do that, the less you push yourself to try new things that in turn help us learn, improve, and do better.

So the answer lies in that sweet spot between giving ourselves a pass and kicking ourselves. It lies in acknowledging when we’re playing sub-par, correcting it if we realize it as it is happening, and reflecting on the pain to then make progress.

In other words, kick yourself just enough to feel some pain but not so hard that it prevents you from trying.

The middle path, as always, is easier in theory than in practice.

How people are really using Gen AI now

I read this report from Marc Zao Sanders titled “How People are Really Using Generative AI now.” This is his second edition and here are the top 10 use-cases with last year’s rank in brackets.

  1. Therapy/companionship (#2 last year)
  2. Organize my life – creating to do lists/shopping lists (Not in last year’s list)
  3. Find purpose – identifying meaningful goals, insights based on personal value (Not in last year’s list)
  4. Enhance learning (#8 last year)
  5. Generate code (#47)
  6. Generate ideas (#1)
  7. Fun and nonsense (#6)
  8. Improve code (#19)
  9. Creativity (#27)
  10. Healthier living (#75)

It was also interesting to see use-cases that were high last year that aren’t high this year. E.g. –

  • Specific search (#3 to #13 this year)
  • Troubleshoot (#7 to #16)
  • Personalize learning (#9 to #17)
  • Edit text/copy (#4 to #45)
  • Draft emails (#11 to #46)
  • Write/edit resume (#13 to #67)

I’m sure every report has its own biases. But I do appreciate a case like this with a consistent methodology year over year.

The biggest reflection I had from seeing the list is how Gen AI use-cases are moving upstream from more tactical (editing text, drafting emails, specific search) to more strategic (therapy, find purpose, etc.). That’s just a mark of how quickly these models are getting better.

As AI takes on a more intimate role, it is hard to escape the thought that we are getting into the realm of dystopian science fiction. That’s aside from all the big questions about how society will be structured a decade from now.

No answers, just observations and questions.

Paying peanuts

“If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys” is a useful quote to keep in mind every time we attempt to take the cheaper route when working with a contractor (of any kind).

Every once a while, if we’ve done our research, cheaper can work and provide the returns we’re seeking.

But, as a general rule, we get what we pay for.

Best to choose thoughtfully.

Creative uses of autopilot time

There are a collection of situations in any given day or week when we switch to autopilot.

Perhaps it is our commute to work or when we’re brushing our teeth or putting our kid(s) to bed.

Each of these autopilot situations can be transformed with a simple habit change.

We could brush with our non dominant hand (helps creativity) or brush while standing on one leg (helps balance).

We could pop on an audio book on the commute.

And we could simply breathe deeply and intentionally while lying in bed.

Small changes in how we use our autopilot time can go a long way.

Prof Daniel Kahneman

Professor Daniel Kahneman, author of “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” was one of the greatest economists to have lived. He escaped the holocaust in France and lived an extraordinary life in the United States.

He had many achievements (The Nobel Prize included) and made tremendous contributions to our understanding of human behavior. In my view, the biggest of which was likely debunking the idea that humans are rational. He did this by running many a clever experiment that demonstrated our many biases. In that sense, he was the true father of behavioral economics.

Prof Kahneman passed away last year.

Over the past weeks, it was revealed that he chose to end his life via assisted suicide in Switzerland. It was fascinating to read the excerpts of his last email to his close friends.

“I have believed since I was a teenager that the miseries and indignities of the last years of life are superfluous, and I am acting on that belief. Most people hate changing their minds,” he said, “but I like to change my mind. It means I’ve learned something…”

“I am not embarrassed by my choice, but I am also not interested in making it a public statement. The family will avoid details about the cause of death to the extent possible, because no one wants it to be the focus of the obits. Please avoid talking about it for a few days.”

“I discovered after making the decision that I am not afraid of not existing, and that I think of death as going to sleep and not waking up. The last period has truly not been hard, except for witnessing the pain I caused others. So if you were inclined to be sorry for me, don’t be,” the report said.

“Thank you for helping make my life a good one.”

I also loved this quote from Prof Philip Tetlock – “Right to the end, he was a lot smarter than most of us. But I am no mind reader. My best guess is he felt he was falling apart, cognitively and physically. And he really wanted to enjoy life and expected life to become decreasingly enjoyable. I suspect he worked out a hedonic calculus of when the burdens of life would begin to outweigh the benefits—and he probably foresaw a very steep decline in his early 90s.. I have never seen a better-planned death than the one Danny designed.”

It was fascinating to read this and pay homage to a person whose work has shaped so many of our lives. He walked through untrodden paths – from the beginning of his life to the end.

RIP Prof Kahneman.

Free checked bags

Southwest Airlines recently moved away from an iconic feature – free checked bags. This is expected to generate $800 million in earnings this year and their shares rose ~10%.

Activist investor Elliott Management had disclosed a $2B stake and understandably pushed the airline to find ways to grow profits. Cue: the company’s first ever layoff and then the removal of free checked bags.

For a company that trademarked the phrase “Bags Fly Free” and repeatedly said it stood out from competitors because of this feature, this is a massive move. The big question, of course, is its long-term impact.

I’m not here to speculate – I don’t know enough about the industry or Southwest’s financials to claim I have the answer. Instead, this is a beautiful case study in decision making and trade-offs.

On the face of it, $800 million in earnings every year might seem like a big win. But that ignores the long-term cost of the move – which both exist and are likely substantial.

There’s no free lunch.

The same trade-offs

The same trade-offs will be good for someone, feel wrong for others, be extremely gratifying for some others, and deeply annoying for a few.

That’s worth remembering whenever we evaluate trade-offs. There’s rarely right or wrong for most decisions. There is what makes sense for you at this time in this context.

The only right or wrong is if the decision is made thoughtfully and intentionally with consideration of the second order consequences.