Month: December 2024

Someone I know has a simple operating principle – if an asynchronous conversation exceeds 5 back and forth exchanges, pick up the phone or meet in person.

It is a useful rule of thumb.

No amount of hype, internal slide decks, dialed in execution, influencer marketing, or even rockstar talent can save a product that isn’t solving an acute and valuable problem.

Matt Ridley’s in his book “How Innovation works” makes the case that growth doesn’t ever have to stop. Once we figure out how to produce more, we learn how to produce more with less. Until our efficiencies far outweigh our appetite.

Light is a great example. Once the cost of light goes down, more people leave their lights on. However, the efficiency of LEDs mean we’re more efficient than ever before.

This chart (source) is a great example. As a share of wallet, the US has gotten incredibly efficient at feeding its citizens. Over time, all the economies in the right will keep doing more with less.

Then the challenge will be to reduce the share of consumer expenditures on quality food. And so on.

More. Then more with less.

Frodo: “I wish none of this had happened.”

​Gandalf: “So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us.”

Indeed

YouGov shared a fascinating chart from a poll asking Americans to estimate the size of groups. 3 things became evident.

First, Americans vastly overestimated the size of minority groups. Check out the difference in estimates of those who have >$500,000, are transgender, are muslim/native american/jewish, and so on.

Second, they underestimated the size of majority groups. More people are Christian, fully vaccinated against COVID-19, have flown on a plane, and have graduated high school than others thought.

Third, it demonstrated just how bad we are, on average, on estimations. Biases rule.

“We live on 1/4 of what we eat, our physician, the other 3/4” —Egyptian proverb

Rick responded to one of my many recent posts on diet with his inspiring journey transforming his diet and his health. As part of that, he shared this quote and the idea that health is not defined as “not getting sick,” but “the ability to fight.”

It all resonated. Thanks Rick!

“It was right then that I started thinking about Thomas Jefferson on the Declaration of Independence and the part about our right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. And I remember thinking how did he know to put the pursuit part in there? That maybe happiness is something that we can only pursue and maybe we can actually never have it. No matter what. How did he know that?” | Christoper Gardiner, The Pursuit of Happyness

It isn’t just the pursuit of happiness. I think happiness lies in the pursuit.

I am clearly stuck on reflecting about stars and the night sky. Here’s a nice summary about today’s sky from Perplexity that never ceases to amaze me –

The night sky we observe today is a glimpse into the past, as the light from celestial objects takes time to reach us. For example, the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, is about 4.37 light-years away, meaning we see it as it was over four years ago. The stars and galaxies visible tonight are at varying distances, with some light taking millions or even billions of years to reach Earth. Thus, the night sky is a tapestry of different ages, reflecting the vast distances and timescales of the universe.

The idea that we’re looking up at a sky from 4 years ago is both mind blowing and almost hard to comprehend.

A simple look up at the night sky unveils so many layers of wonder.

We’ve been taking a walk after dinner of late.

We’ve been noticing the stars more as a result, and realized it has been many years since we’ve noticed stars.

That sounds crazy. But we just didn’t step out most nights. And, even if we did, we didn’t look up to appreciate the gorgeous night sky.

It made me think of the many wonderful things around me that I take for granted.

All we need is to make space for us to look around… and notice.

“Innovation happens not within but between brains.” | Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works

Matt Ridley’s thorough analysis of innovations in over multiple millennia make it clear that the “great man” theory is one we’ve created out of convenience and due (more recently) to intellectual property law.

Innovation has consistently arrived because of humans who chose to build on the work of their rivals and predecessors and combine existing ideas in interesting ways.

Not within but between brains.